3 Theories on Why Inflation May Surprise Us

This Week:

  • Deutsche Bank: The Fiat Money World May Be Coming to an End
  • Golden Catalysts
  • Here’s How Inflation Could Surprise Everyone
  • Will the New Zealand Dollar Continue to Fall?

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices
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NZD Gold and Silver Breakout

Gold in NZ Dollars reached a new high for the year this week. Shooting above $1900 on Monday before pulling back yesterday. But it has edged higher again today.

Depending on how we draw the resistance line, NZD gold has either broken above it or just touched it. We’ve gone with the latter option today. But either way NZD gold continues its steady rise for 2017. Up over $200 per ounce.

NZ Dollar Gold Chart

Silver also shot sharply higher on Monday. It has now broken out of the downtrend it has been in since July 2016. While it did pull back sharply yesterday, silver is today still above the downtrend line. It’s now likely that higher prices are ahead. With not a great deal of resistance until the 2016 high above $29.

NZ Dollar Silver Chart

NZ Dollar at New Low for 2017

The weaker New Zealand dollar has been a big factor in the higher NZD gold and silver prices of late. This week the Kiwi Dollar set a new 17 month low as it dipped below the horizontal support line at 0.6825.

NZ Dollar Chart

Will the NZ Dollar fall further yet? Check out this weeks feature article where we look at this question in detail.

Will the New Zealand Dollar Continue to Fall?

Will the New Zealand Dollar Continue to Fall?

Unsure About Any Terms We Use When Discussing the Charts?

Remember to check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

3 Theories on Why Inflation May Surprise Us

This week the idea that inflation may surprise is the common theme.

First we have a surprising article from a Deutsche Bank analyst. He is worried that the deflationary factors of the past couple of decades may be coming to an end, and once it does, central banks won’t be able to use their usual tricks. And if that happens, the age of fiat money will be in trouble.

Deutsche Bank: The Fiat Money World May Be Coming to an End

Deutsche Bank: The Fiat Money World May Be Coming to an End

Continues below



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Interestingly another Analyst from a different bank had similar thoughts recently. Adrian Ash notes:

“In the 1970s and 80s,” writes currency strategist Steven Barrow at ICBC Standard Bank…also pondering the real meaning of Salvator Mundi today [referring to the record price for a Da Vinci painting]…”the inflation unleashed by rampant liquidity growth was primarily in goods and services prices, not asset prices.

“Globalisation has [now] managed to suppress inflationary pressure in those countries that have conducted QE, and everywhere else for that matter.

“[So] all the inflation these days is in asset prices.”

This could change, Barrow warns. First because asset bubbles always pop in the end. But second, moves to roll back globalization…such as Trump’s protectionist policies, or the UK vote for Brexit…”will eventually cause goods and services inflation to reassert itself in a more significant way.”

Gold, silver and especially platinum have so far sat out this latest round in the world’s multi-decade asset-price bubble.

Precious metals could well offer some kind of salvation amid a financial crash or surge of inflation.”

Then finally the advisory board at Incrementum discussed how inflation could surprise people in depth including:

► Quantitative Tightening is deflationary in theory, but will be inflationary in practice
► The narrative around inflation is about to change, which in turn will
lead to higher inflation
► It’s the market narrative that’s important, not the underlying reality of markets

We summarise the pain points below or you can watch the video highlights if you prefer…

Here’s How Inflation Could Surprise Everyone

Here’s How Inflation Could Surprise Everyone

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Tell Jim Rickards – Gold Has Already Broken Out

We also posted an article from Jim Rickards looking at a number of catalysts for gold.

Golden Catalysts

One of the points Rickards makes is that gold is trading in a multi-year wedge formation. A formation he notes it will have to break out of soon.

But to us it looks like Rickards needs to update his chart. As this breakout has already happened in recent months. We just are yet to see much of a move higher in US Dollar gold.

US Dollar Gold Chart

Your Questions Wanted

Finally Remember, if you’ve got specific question, be sure to send it in to be in the running for a 1oz silver coin.

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Call David to discuss any of today’s deals on 0800 888 465. Or just reply to this email.
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This Weeks Articles:

Will the New Zealand Dollar Continue to Fall?

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 9:08 PM NZST

Back on the 1st November we asked the question: “Is the New Zealand Dollar Now in a Longer Term Downtrend?” Let’s revisit what we said then. Then we’ll consider will the New Zealand dollar continue to fall? Is the NZ Dollar Now in a Longer Term Downtrend? As noted already the NZ Dollar is still oversold. […]
Read More…

Here’s How Inflation Could Surprise Everyone

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 4:44 PM NZST

Here’s How Inflation Could Surprise EveryoneRecently we’ve shared the idea that money velocity could turn up. As a result inflation could surprise many people by finally increasing. Gold expert Pierre Lassonde recently stated: “The Federal Reserve and other central banks have piled up huge reserves. But there is no inflation because the money is sitting within the banks and they […]
Read More…

Golden Catalysts

Mon, 20 Nov 2017 4:31 PM NZST

Jim Rickards covers a variety of topics that may impact the gold price in the coming months. These include: Deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Russia Geopolitical risks from North Korea, to Saudi Arabia, to the South China Sea Whether the Fed will raise interest rates next month? Why the key data is the disinflation […]
Read More…

Deutsche Bank: The Fiat Money World May Be Coming to an End

Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:51 PM NZST

Here’s the summary of a surprising report from one of Europe’s largest banks. It provides a good rationale as to why there has appeared to be very little price inflation in recent years. Plus it explains how this low inflation period could be soon coming to an end…     Deutsche Bank: The Fiat Money […]
Read More…

Still Waiting on a Break Out…

Thu, 16 Nov 2017 12:52 PM NZST

This Week: Gold Survival Guide App: Download Our Free Mobile App Today Lord, What Fools These Mortals Be… Gold And The Big Four: Slam Dunk Gold And Silver: Something Different Is Occurring Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver?Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $1791 […]
Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

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  1. To demystify the concept of protecting and increasing ones wealth through owning gold and silver in the current turbulent economic environment.
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We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
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We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.

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