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- How to Create More Freedom Now With These Three Steps
- 4 Reasons You Should Store Some Precious Metals Outside of New Zealand
- Has Peak Silver Arrived?
- Visa Ups the War on Cash + How Governments Can Kill Cash
- What Are Gold and Silver Futures Positions Telling Us Currently?
Prices and Charts
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|Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity||$1625|
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Both Metals Up But So is the NZ Dollar
Gold in NZ Dollars has moved a little higher this week. Looks to have once again bounced off the long term rising blue trendline.
As we mentioned last week when the RSI gets very oversold as it just did, this has coincided with a bottom being formed multiple times over the past few years. See the red circles in the chart below. There’s every chance this is happening again.
NZD silver also looks to have bounced up off the rising blue long term trendline. Plus also off the red short term downtrend line. We now need to see it rally back above the 50 day moving average (MA) line.
The Kiwi dollar has definitely stunted the rise of local gold and silver prices this week. The NZ dollar is up a hefty 1.72% this week.
(Looking to buy currently? Sign up here for our daily price alert to stay up to date on the day to day movements in both metals and get the best entry point.)
This rise in the Kiwi Dollar came after US Central Bank head Janet Yellen alluded to the pace of further US interest rate rises not being as steady as most traders would have thought. So sell the US dollar, buy other currencies like the Kiwi.
What is the Fed up to? Jim Rickards explained in an email earlier today:
“In past business cycles, the Fed would tighten until the economy cooled or went into a recession because the Fed tightened too much. Then the Fed would ease until the economy came out of its funk and started to grow and create jobs. The point is that the easing and tightening cycles were continual and were based on the business cycle. There were no flip-flops. What’s different this time is that the Fed is dancing on a knife edge between preventing the next recession and being the cause of one. The Fed is not raising rates as part of a normal business cycle associated with an overly strong economy. The Fed is raising rates in a desperate attempt to get them high enough (to around 3.25%) so they can cut them in the next recession without hitting the “zero lower bound.” The trick is to raise rates in a weak economy without causing the recession you are preparing to cure. That’s what accounts for the easing by pauses and forward guidance.”
So as a result the NZ dollar could quite conceivably move higher from here and challenge the 0.74 level. However bear in mind that this change of “forward guidance” from the US Fed head is also likely to be gold and silver positive.
Back to Rickards:
“In short, growth is weak, inflation is weak, retail sales and real incomes are weak, labor force participation is low and stocks are at all-time highs. Brainard and Yellen made it clear that the Fed will continue to tighten through balance sheet reductions even if rate hikes are on hold. Tight money, a weak economy, and a stock market bubble is a classic recipe for a stock market crash. It’s time for investors to go into a defensive crouch by selling stocks and reallocating assets to cash, Treasury notes, gold and gold mining shares. In particular, gold will be the big winner when the Fed suddenly realizes its blunder and has to pivot quickly to ease, probably by late summer. The time to position in gold is right now.”
Therefore we may see the NZ Dollar rising but precious metals prices also rising. The upshot may be that local gold and silver prices rise but in percentage terms just not as much as the commonly reported US Dollar gold and silver prices.
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What Are Gold and Silver Futures Positions Telling Us Currently?
Adrian Ash commented earlier this week, that the futures traders who are usually wrong at the extremes, look to be positioned that way again following Yellen’s remarks:
“…on the latest data, the so-called ‘Managed Money’ category of Comex traders was net short overall last week on record-high bearish bets. This is the first time the hot-money was overall bearish on silver since August 2015. More telling still, there were more speculative bears on Comex silver contracts than bulls last week…in this instance for the first time since December 2015. Might these guys be right? Well, they held a record-high bullish position on Comex silver contracts…net of the same group’s bearish bets…only this April. Prices have fallen 10% since then. As for the last time these guys were net short…back in the second-half of December 2015…that coincided with 6-year lows in US Dollar silver prices. Prices have risen by one-fifth since then. None of this means the ‘Managed Money’ going net short is a guaranteed buy signal. It stayed net short for 7 weeks in late 2015…and these hedge funds might make a few bucks yet by being right in summer 2017. But in the end the fact is harder than concrete… The hot-money speculators both create and must also lose out to silver’s high and low price extremes. Because once the herd has all run one way, it can only turn round and run the other. “
On the opposite side of the trade are what are referred to as the “Commercials”.
These are the companies like miners, refiners and bullion banks that are using futures to actively hedge their positions.
They are the traders that are more likely to be correct at the extremes. And Ted Butler this week showed how they are positioned.
“The Commercial net short position in silver is now down to 24,567 contracts, or 122.8 million troy ounces of paper silver. And once you factor out the extra 30,000+ non-technical funds Managed Money longs that have been added over the last three years, this report is, with out a word of a lie, the most wildly bullish in COMEX history…especially for JPMorgan. Here’s the 3-year COT chart. Click to enlarge. …The commercial net short position in gold is down to only 7.39 million troy ounces. I haven’t seen that small a number in many, many years — and I know that Ted will have the exact date in his column later today. Here’s the 3-year COT chart for gold — and like its silver counterpart, it’s set up for a rocket ride higher as soon as JPMorgan et al allow it. Click to enlarge. …the numbers you see above couldn’t possibly get more extreme than they are now. Of course, if ‘da boyz’ really wanted to hammer prices lower, I suppose they could. But at these levels, the law of diminishing returns is in full force — and if I had to bet the proverbial ten dollar bill, I’d happily bet it on the fact that lows for this move down are already in place.” Source.
Gold Stocks Also Have a Bullish Indicator For the First Time in 2017
It appears that gold mining shares might also be giving a buy signal now too. And miners often seem to lead gold prices higher. Here’s Jeff Clark:
“After chopping back and forth for the past several months, gold stocks are finally ready to rally. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the gold sector just generated its first buy signal since December. A BPI illustrates the percentage of stocks in a sector trading with bullish chart patterns. It’s a measure of overbought and oversold conditions. In most cases, a sector is overbought – and subject to a correction – when the BPI rallies above 80 (meaning 80% of the stocks in the sector are trading in bullish technical patterns). A sector is oversold when the BPI dips below 30. And the BPI generates a buy signal when it turns higher from oversold conditions. Here’s how the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) looks now… Earlier this month, the BPGDM dipped below 30. That’s an oversold condition – indicating that less than 30% of the stocks in the gold sector were trading with bullish technical formations. But yesterday, BPGDM turned higher from oversold conditions and generated its first gold stock buy signal of 2017. The last buy signal we got from this indicator was back in December. Gold stocks – as measured by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) – rallied 30% in just two months back then.A similar move this time would have GDX rallying above $27 per share by September. There’s no guarantee, of course, that this BPGDM buy signal will play out the same way. But, after chopping around for several months, the gold sector has plenty of energy to fuel a strong rally.” Source.
Overall we have local prices for gold and silver bouncing off long term support levels.
This combined with the set up in the gold and silver futures outlined above, mean the odds favour any purchases around current levels.
This coincides nicely with the 2 silver deals mentioned earlier. So hit reply for the latest pricing.
Plus be sure to check out the articles posted this week below.
In particular the 4 Reasons You Should Store Some Precious Metals Outside of New Zealand.
Call David on 0800 888 465 for a quote or with any questions.
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This Weeks Articles:
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.
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|The Legal stuff – Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.|