Dead Cat Bounce or New Bull? Why This Market Rally Might Fade

Weekly Market Wrap – 4 June 2025

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Weekly Price Overview – 4 June 2025

Gold and silver both pushed higher again this week, with silver outperforming and gold reclaiming key technical levels.

🟡 NZD gold gained $31 to $5,605 (+0.55%), returning to short-term resistance. USD gold rose $49 (1.5%) to $3,361, breaking above its recent downtrend and holding trend support.

⚪ Silver led the way. NZD silver jumped $1.66 to $57.72 (+3%), now firmly above its 50-day MA. USD silver added $1.30 to $34.61 (+3.9%) — just under its October high, with upside momentum building.

💱 The NZD rose 0.91% to 0.5996 — its highest close of the year, after briefly topping 0.6000. A stronger Kiwi could dampen NZD metal gains short term, but longer-term signals remain bullish.

📈 Charts show uptrends remain intact across gold and silver, and pullbacks still look like good buying opportunities.

Gold’s Long Game: The 12 Insights You Can’t Afford to Miss

The 2025 In Gold We Trust Report just landed — and as always, it’s packed with insights on gold, inflation, central banks, and the shifting global monetary order.

This year’s theme is “The Big Long”, and we’ve done the heavy lifting for you by pulling out 12 of the most important takeaways and charts.

From rising central bank gold demand, to why gold is rallying despite rising real interest rates, this is essential reading for anyone serious about wealth protection.

Read our full summary here:
In Gold We Trust Report 2025 Summary

Reality Check Radio: Glenn Talks Gold, Derivatives & What It Means for NZ

Yesterday, GSG Co-Founder Glenn Thomas joined Paul Brennan on Reality Check Radio to discuss a major shift that’s gone mostly unnoticed — a surge in gold-related activity at the heart of Europe’s financial system.

We covered:
– What the ECB’s rising gold derivatives might signal
– Why physical gold is quietly flowing across borders
– How this could ripple through to Kiwi investors and savers

It’s not fear-mongering — just a calm look at some developments you won’t hear about in the mainstream.

🎧 Listen to the full interview here (free registration may be required):
👉 Reality Check Radio Interview – Glenn Thomas

Dead Cat or New Bull? Why This Market Rally Might Fade

While mainstream commentators cheer the rebound in stocks, seasoned analysts are flagging warning signs: overconfidence, overvaluation, and surging investor optimism.

Even the RBNZ admits the outlook is clouded by uncertainty, while the inflationary impact of global trade disruptions still looms large.

RBNZ Says Trade War = Lower Prices?

ASB reports after last week’s rate cut:

“The RBNZ has assumed that the overall impact of the trade war will be to dampen NZ inflation pressures over the medium term.  We believe this is the correct assumption to make.  But, as the RBNZ is at pains to point out, it is really uncertain at present.  Is the impact on NZ like a demand shock that dampens inflation pressure, or more like a supply shock that boosts costs in the economy?”

We guess we’ll see in the long run. But all the smart people we follow seem to think the overall impact of the trade war will be inflationary. Regardless of how you define inflation. 1. Austrian Economics: Central banks are likely to end up cranking up the printing presses and increasing the money supply. 2. Mainstream Economics: Consumer prices are likely to rise as that’s who will pay for at least a chunk of the tariffs.

What the Smart Money is Saying

Jesse Colombo warns that investor euphoria has outpaced market fundamentals — with retail investors piling back in, even as stocks remain historically expensive.

“Stocks aren’t cheap—not by any historical measure… I’m perfectly content sitting in gold, silver, and mining stocks.”
Read more here.

Meanwhile, Tom Bradshaw breaks down the fragile psychology propping up today’s market:

• ⚠️ Valuations: Highest since 1929
• ⚠️ Protectionism: Déjà vu from the 1930s
• ⚠️ Tightening: Longest restrictive Fed cycle in U.S. history
  

“Markets have been trained to believe ‘it always comes back’… But what if the cavalry doesn’t arrive this time?”
Read full post.

Chart of the Week: The Many Dead Cats of the 2000s

Many Dead Cats Were Seen Bouncing in the 2000s bear market — a reminder that not every rally signals recovery.

Meme of the Week: Do you know what a dead cat bounce is?

Source: Brandon D. White

Short-term rallies can distract from what’s really happening beneath the surface.

If this is just another dead cat bounce, now’s the time to strengthen your position — not get lulled back into overvalued assets.

📞 Talk to us today or learn more about how to buy gold and silver before confidence fades and reality hits: