Prices and Charts
NZD Gold Back Close to All-Time High Despite Stronger Kiwi
Gold in New Zealand dollars is up $54 from last week to $4861. Even with the Kiwi dollar rising by almost 0.8%. The Trump dip after the election looks likely to be over with gold rising after yesterday’s inauguration. So it looks like a good move to buy any dip back towards the blue uptrend line which currently coincides with the 50 day moving average (the blue wiggly line).
USD Gold was up almost 2%. Rising $52 from last week to $2749. It looks like it is breaking above the blue downtrend line. So watching for a retest of the October high of $2800 now.
Silver – Buy Any Dip
NZD silver is down 17 cents from last week to $54.64. Silver continues to bounce up and down between the green lines in this wedge formation. But seems likely to have bottomed out around $51. Buying any dip back towards the green uptrend line around $54 should be a good move as silver heads higher towards the high of $60.
While USD silver was up 15 cents to $30.90. It has risen a little off the 200 day moving average. So buying any further dip back to that (blue wiggly line) will likely be a good entry point.
Kiwi Dollar Jumps 1%
The Kiwi dollar is up 44 basis to 0.5655. It was up over 1% but is down a little today. It might have made a double bottom at 0.5500. But despite this jump NZ gold is still sitting close to its recent all time high.
Need Help Understanding the Charts?
Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:
Continues below
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Buying Silver in New Zealand – Does it Still Cost More Than Elsewhere?
In this week’s feature article we explore whether buying silver costs more in New Zealand compared to elsewhere. In the past premiums above the world silver spot price have generally been higher in New Zealand for silver coins and even bars. This is due to:
- Geographic Isolation: New Zealand’s remote location leads to increased shipping and insurance costs for importing silver bullion.
- Market Size: The relatively small domestic market for precious metals results in less competition among dealers, contributing to higher premiums.
But is this still the case today?
While the silver spot price might have jumped over the past year, you’ll see why right now silver is actually the cheapest we can remember.
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ASB Agrees Inflation Likely Higher By Year End
Last week in our annual review and predictions for the coming year, one of our guesses was that inflation would be higher by the end of the year.
After previously saying inflation will return to normal low levels, ASB is now saying something similar to us:
“We expect a 0.4% quarterly increase in Q4 headline CPI, with annual CPI inflation falling to 2.1%, broadly in line with the RBNZ’s November MPS pick.
The moderation in non-tradable inflation rates is expected to continue, but higher tradable prices over 2025 will likely push aggregate CPI inflation higher at the margin by year end.
A 50bp cut in February and 3.25% OCR endpoint is our base case scenario, but the timing and magnitude of OCR moves hinges on how events pan out.”
“Reflecting a combination of influences, modest increases are expected for tradable prices over 2025. This should push overall inflation slightly higher by the end of 2025. With inflation effectively parked within the inflation target zone, the RBNZ is well positioned to continue to promptly normalise OCR settings. We expect a 50bp February cut and a 3.25% OCR by mid-2025. Our base case is that the OCR will not need to move below circa 3.25% neutral levels in 2025, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain and is conditional on several factors.”
Rates Hikes Now on the Table?
While ASB is still saying the RBNZ will cut rates here throughout 2025, this week saw news items appear in the US of possible rate increases by the US central bank.
This implies that the Fed made yet another mistake, cutting too soon.
It also portends ballooning US debt payments, swamping anything DOGE can suggest.
And, of course, Trump wants lower rates…
ROCK, MEET HARD PLACE.
Source
Here’s theYahoo Finance article mentioned above.
This simply shows how much uncertainty there is around the coming year. But markets in general seem way too confident and unconcerned. Buckle up.
But Gold and Silver Rises with Rate Cut Delay News
Gold tends to come under pressure when there are signs of delays in rate cuts. Because this means higher interest rates ahead, which is also meant to be bad for precious metals since they offer no yield. We wouldn’t agree with these sentiments, however many do. So it could be significant to see markets doing the opposite of what might be expected.
Metals and mining analyst Lobo Tiggre points this out:
“I don’t want to celebrate prematurely, but this is the second time gold and silver are up on news of higher inflation.
([BTC] as well this time, to be fair.)
If traders finally got the memo that higher inflation is bullish for gold, we’re in for a very exciting year…”
Source.
Our friend Louis Boulanger made a good comment in response to this which we heartily agree with.
“US equity market topping, US Treasuries not providing protection with rates rising, US fiscal situation giving rise to global concerns… all of which make gold look increasingly attractive again.”
Long Term Interest Rates Rising
Another of our predictions for 2025 was that long term interest rates will end the year higher.
This interesting chart showing real (as in inflation adjusted) 30 year rates is pointing to this playing out.
“This is arguably one of the most critical macro developments unfolding today.
Even when adjusted for inflation, the 30-year yield has recently reached its highest level in 15 years.
The US cannot sustain this for long, in my opinion.
It will need either higher inflation or a suppression of nominal rates to alleviate the pressure.”
Source.
World of Warcraft vs World of Fartcraft
This excellent short note from Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, highlights the risk currently faced as Trump gets sworn in: “World of Warcraft vs World of Fartcraft” (great title referring to meme coins!).
“For a decade I’ve warned that by repeating every error of the 1920s and 1930s, and adding new ones, the ‘global liberal system’ of the Davos set faced repeat collapse. Today, that likely begins, ironically alongside the World Economic Forum now powerless on the sidelines calling for ‘collaboration in the intelligent age’. As The Guardian notes, “Good luck with that.”
Welcome to a world of warcraft. Financial op-eds belatedly notice we are seeing not just populism, protectionism, mercantilism, and war, but economic statecraft and neo-imperialism, where the world may be divided into economic zones of interest by the US, Russia, and China (as floated here as far back as 2017’s ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’). Notice Europe doesn’t get one – it’s part of others due to its own actions, underlined by a report the EU may drop its WTO case against China for boycotting Lithuania, setting a worrying precedent, and the head of a major German auto firm arguing for more Chinese car factories to be built in Europe.”
He goes on to highlight the risks to the US, but then importantly points out:
“However, let’s also not forget that other economies are facing their own world of warcraft dilemmas with big market implications:
- If you think the US has problems, try being Europe reaching for strategic autonomy rather than strategic on-top-of-me.
- Or try being the UK, which was looking EM-like of late, and whom the US seems to have a problem with. PM Starmer is reportedly setting up a ‘mini-Cabinet’ to try to finally win a US trade deal, including the attorney general who negotiated the deal surrendering UK control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius on what looks unfavourable terms, and which Trump vigorously opposes: imagine the US president negotiating with a UK team criticised as being good at giving strategic British things away.
- What will China do with an economy that generates a $1 trillion annual trade surplus in a world that won’t swallow it for much longer? At least it’s physically prepared on many fronts.
- Russian’s central bank just signalled it will push rates to at least 23% to fight high inflation, as the state’s reserve fund has reportedly been 2/3 depleted, financing gaps are perhaps being filled by off-book soft loans from banks, and grain firms will now be subject to 25% corporate tax vs 20% prior to try to fill state coffers. Does Russia not need a little Фарткрафт of its own?
The collapse of the ‘global liberal system’ likely begins today, whatever craft you prefer.”
It’s only a couple of pages so worth the free download here.
Source
So make sure you have plenty of counterparty risk assets. It’s going to be a really interesting year ahead!
We have great deals on 1 kg silver bars (minimum of 5kgs). Plus silver coins are the cheapest above spot price that we can remember them being. So get in touch for a quote.
Please get in contact for a gold or silver quote, or if you have any questions:
- Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
- Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
- or Shop Online with indicative pricing
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