This Week:
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Weekly Price Overview – 12 November 2025
Precious metals surged this week in both USD and NZD terms, with silver leading the way. A small bounce in the NZ dollar provided little resistance to rising metal prices, which remain in strong uptrends overall.
🟡 NZD gold rose $352.06 (+5.05%) to $7,326.43, breaking back above the upper trend channel. While consolidation is possible, the uptrend remains intact. Support lies at $6,800 and then down at $6,250. USD gold jumped $209.59 (+5.33%) to $4,143.83, pushing higher off its recent support line. Further dips to round-number levels could offer entry points.
⚪ NZD silver climbed $6.93 (+8.27%) to $90.77, rebounding sharply off the 50-day moving average and first green uptrend line. Momentum remains strong, but silver may pause to shake out weak hands. USD silver gained $4.05 (+8.55%) to $51.34, staging a sharp bounce after recent weakness. Like gold, dips could be an opportunity to average in.
💱 NZD/USD rose 15 basis points to 0.5656 (+0.27%), recovering slightly but still stuck in a long-term downtrend. This trend continues to support local metal prices.
📈 Takeaway: Both gold and silver are rallying strongly — and with the NZD still weak, local prices remain well-supported. As always, averaging in on dips remains a prudent long-term approach.
Gold vs Shares: What This Century-Old Ratio Is Saying Now
For more than a century, a little-watched ratio has quietly warned of major shifts between paper assets and hard money. The Dow/Gold Ratio is flashing the same signal seen before every major gold bull market in the past century.
In this week’s feature article, we dig into:
- What the Dow Gold Ratio is
- Why it still matters in today’s markets
- And what history says it could mean for gold (and shares) in the next phase of the cycle
Has the Gold Rally Been Extraordinary?
Pieter Borsje points out that despite the sharp price rise since 2022, this rally is actually only the third strongest in the last 50 years:
- 1976–1980: +518% – inflation, oil shocks, and the collapse of Bretton Woods
- 2001–2011: +643% – credit crisis, QE, and a collapse in trust
- 2022–2025: +170% – sovereign debt fatigue, de-dollarisation, and a new fiscal era
So what makes this rally unique?
“It’s the participants. In the 1970s, it was retail investors. In the 2000s, hedge funds.
Today, it’s central banks — buying quietly and without leverage.”
Central banks are now acquiring over 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for the fourth straight year. They’re not speculating — they’re actually reallocating.
Source: Pieter Borsje via LinkedIn
Jesse Colombo: Why the Bull Market in Gold & Silver Is Still Young
Analyst Jesse Colombo offers another reason to remain bullish:
“One of the reasons I know the bull market in both gold and silver is still in its early stages is that American investor participation has barely begun.”
Despite gold’s 155% rise, GLD ETF holdings are up just 16%.
This hints that the next leg may be driven by US investors. When that happens, Jesse believes:
“They’ll send both gold and silver to the moon.”
Source: Jesse Colombo via LinkedIn
The Central Bank Easing Cycle & Gold’s Opportunity
Why central banks are quietly setting the stage for much higher gold prices
1. US Gold Reserves vs Fed Balance Sheet – A Classic Warning Signal
James Anderson points out that US gold reserves now cover just 16% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Historically, that’s the same starting point we saw before the last two major gold bull markets — the early 1970s and just before the GFC in 2007.
With gold near US$4,000, US reserves are worth ~$1 trillion vs a $6.6 trillion Fed balance sheet.That number is likely to expand again soon — as confirmed by Fed President John Williams just this week.
“The current math suggests this gold bullion bull will become the all-timer. Many multiples in gold prices to come.”
— James Anderson
Source: James Anderson via LinkedIn
2. China’s Currency Pump: Liquidity Everywhere
While the US is signalling expansion, China is already doing it. Just this week, the Chinese central bank injected another ¥1.16 trillion into the market. That brings China’s M2 money supply to over ¥335 trillion — up 8% this year alone.
This is no small matter. China’s liquidity expansion adds fuel to gold’s already smouldering fire.
Source: Carl ₿ MENGER via Charles-Henry Monchau
3. Ray Dalio: The Fed Is Easing… Into a Bubble
Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio summed it up well this week: “The Fed is stimulating into a bubble.” (As we discussed last week with the bubble building in the likes of AI stocks).
Usually, central banks ease when markets are weak. But this time, valuations are already extreme (see the 39.5 P/E ratio). Unemployment is low. GDP is growing. And yet, the Fed is preparing to stimulate again. That makes this cycle very different — and riskier.
“When you stimulate into a bubble, you’re not just cushioning a fall — you’re feeding the next blow-off top.”
— Ray Dalio
Gold historically thrives in these environments — when real interest rates fall, debt levels rise, and the value of paper money is quietly eroded to keep the system afloat.
This week’s signals — from Fed shifts to China’s liquidity surge — suggest the monetary system is entering a new phase. And history shows these shifts don’t favour paper assets. If you haven’t yet positioned yourself outside the system, now may be the time to explore your options.
If you’ve got questions or want to discuss your next move, simply reply to this email, or get in touch.
We’re here to help — no pressure, just straightforward answers.