Gold Can Benefit From Both a Crisis or a Boom

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

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NZD Gold Bottoming Out Above $2700?

Gold in New Zealand Dollars is down a little lower from a week ago, chiefly because of the strengthening NZ Dollar.

After last week’s sharp fall below the 200 day moving average (MA) and the uptrend line, NZD gold looks to be trying to build a base of support above $2700. We need to see it get back above the 200 day moving average now.

While in US Dollars, gold continues in the sideways trading range above $1850 that it has been in since September.

NZ Dollar Gold Chart

NZD Silver Holding Steady

Silver in New Zealand Dollars is pretty much unchanged from a week ago. It continues to track along the rising trendline of the pennant or wedge formation. Silver is now close to a break out from this pattern in both NZD and USD terms. The technical indicators are evenly balanced in terms of which way they might head from here. With a neutral RSI and NZD silver sitting midway between the 50 and 200 day moving averages, it could go either way.

Consider buying a  series of tranches to get a good overall position.

NZ Dollar Silver Chart

NZ Dollar Strength Continues

The New Zealand Dollar continued its rise this past week. Moving from the low 0.68’s to be at 0.6877 as we type. The Kiwi has broken above the downtrend line. It is now approaching the overhead horizontal resistance line near 0.70. But the NZD is also into overbought territory above 70 on the RSI so we could see pullback before too long.

So we could continue to see the NZD gold and silver prices underperform compared to the commonly quoted USD precious metals prices. But in the long run all currencies are losing value against gold.

NZ Dollar Chart

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below


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Gold ‘Set for a Break-Out’ with Comex Bullish Bets at 18-Month Low

We stated above that gold and silver are both evenly poised in terms of whether they might head higher or lower.

A Bullionvault report this morning highlighted the positioning of futures traders in gold.

Gold Trading ‘Set for a Break-Out’ with Comex Bullish Bets at 18-Month Low as Covid ‘Explosion’ Offsets Vaccine Hopes

“Latest data from US regulator the CFTC meantime show that bearish betting against gold prices by money managers trading Comex futures and options was barely changed from a week earlier last Tuesday – the day after Pfizer’s vaccine PR knocked $100 off spot prices.
But with bearish speculation still near its strongest since June 2019, bullish betting among hedge funds and other money managers fell for the 3rd week running, dropping 6.2% – the fastest pace since mid-September – to reach the smallest since May 2019.
…Together, that left last Tuesday’s net long position in Comex gold derivatives equal to a notional 345 tonnes of bullion among Managed Money traders, the smallest in 18 months and below its 15-year average of 379 tonnes.

Gold bullish minus bearish bets

These numbers show that the correction in gold is doing just what it needs to. That is, reducing the interest in gold which in fact sets gold up for its next move higher.

Gold may need to dip a little lower first, but it’s likely the next leg up is not that far away.

Gold vs Digital Currencies – Which Should You Choose?

Low and negative interest rates around the world have been sending most asset classes higher once again. Stock markets, real estate prices, and bond prices have all been rising. Recently we have seen digital currencies also surging higher. Now closing in on all time highs.

With gold still in correction mode there are renewed calls to drop gold for digital currencies instead. So which should you choose? This week’s feature article tackles this question…

Gold vs Digital Currencies – Which Should You Choose?

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Gold Can Benefit From Both a Crisis or a Boom – But With a Lag

Nick Hubble writing in the Daily Reckoning Australia, looked at why gold may be lagging other investment classes right now:

Gold, either way

“The interesting thing about gold is that it can benefit from both a crisis and a boom if that boom is inflationary.

The irony being that the gold price tumbles at the onset of both these scenarios.

At the beginning of a crisis, the gold price falls alongside everything else. Why? It is a long story involving the investment banks involved in the gold market and their other positions.

But, as the government and central bank responses to the crisis begin, and as investors seek safe havens, the gold price tends to outperform in a crisis thereafter. Including the COVID-19 shock and 2008.

This is an easy market mispricing you can take advantage of in a crisis. Buy the dip.

This week, the gold price got smacked despite the narrative being a sudden recovery under a vaccine. This seems unfair at first. If gold takes a hit during the onset of a crisis, surely it should go up at the onset of a sudden recovery from a pandemic?

But no, that’s not how it works.

If a global boom is on, safe haven gold looks like the wrong bet. And so the gold price fell on the pandemic news. Dramatically so.

However, and this is the key to gold’s medium-term future, it seems to me that interest rates will lag behind the global boom, if we do get one coming out of this pandemic. There is simply too much debt to raise rates on, as just described.

This in turn means that monetary policy will be one step behind inflation. And that’s the most important influence on the gold price there is. Inflation ahead of interest rates makes gold go up.

As I see it, the recent gold slump is a buy either way. One way you can get ahead of the market and profit from it being wrong too.”

So, if the covid-panic gets worse, gold should do well. But, if we get a recovery, rates will stay lower than they really should be. As a result we’ll see inflation higher than interest rates. Or what is known as a “negative real interest rate”. (For more on this see: Real Interest Rates vs Gold Prices – What Can They Tell Us About When to Buy Gold in New Zealand? [Mid Year 2020 Update]).

So gold will do well too.

Seems a solid argument to us.

Let us know if you’re ready to buy and have any questions…

  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

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This Weeks Articles:

RBNZ Continues to Try and Stimulate and Dampen the Housing Market at the Same Time

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 1:19 PM NZST

Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2646 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1103 NZD Gold Down Sharply from Last Week Yesterday saw gold plummet sharply. In New Zealand dollar terms gold dipped below both the 200 […]

The post RBNZ Continues to Try and Stimulate and Dampen the Housing Market at the Same Time appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

Should I Buy Legal Tender (Face Value) Gold and Silver Coins?

Tue, 10 Nov 2020 5:50 PM NZST

In this post you’ll learn all about legal tender gold coins and silver coins including: Here’s a question we received as a result of our 1 oz Silver Coin award. (See How to Win A Silver Coin Every Month for more details on this). Ross asks: Here’s a question for you that I cannot seem to find […]

The post Should I Buy Legal Tender (Face Value) Gold and Silver Coins? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

The Death of Term Deposits in New Zealand?

Wed, 4 Nov 2020 12:52 PM NZST

Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2745 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1119 Gold Unchanged From Last Week During the week NZD gold dipped down briefly below the horizontal support line at $2850. Before then moving […]

The post The Death of Term Deposits in New Zealand? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

NZ Cash In Circulation Up Massively in 2020

Wed, 28 Oct 2020 11:34 AM NZST

Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2736 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1128 NZD Gold Down to $2850 Horizontal Support Line Again This week gold in New Zealand dollars is again touching the horizontal support line […]

The post NZ Cash In Circulation Up Massively in 2020 appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide

Today’s Prices to Buy
1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar
1oz NZ Gold Ingot
1kg ABC 99.9% pure silver bar
1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
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1kg “Scottsdale Gold” Bar 99.99% with unique serial number

1oz 2020 Royal Australian Mint 99.99% Gold Coin

$2930 – Phone or email to order
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin (2020)
Gold Maple
1 oz South African Silver Krugerrand Coin
(Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)

Silver Monster Box
Tube of 25 $1123
Box of 500

(Fully insured and delivered)
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  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
  • Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
  • Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
  • Plus we accept BTC, BCH, Visa and Mastercard
  • Note: For local gold and silver orders your funds are deposited into our suppliers bank account. We receive a finders fee direct from them. Pricing is as good or sometimes even better than if you went direct.

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We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
Ph: 0800 888 465
From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898

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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
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