Prices and Charts
Gold Hits New All-Time Highs Above US$3000 and NZ$5200
Gold in NZ dollars jumped $135 from last week to $5245 for a new all-time high. Buy zones on any dip remain:
- The green uptrend line
- then the 50-day moving average (MA) at $5030
- Followed by the blue uptrend line around $4900
While USD gold broke through $3000 for the first time ever. Rising $133 (4.5%) to $US$3048 – a new all-time high. It could face fairly stiff resistance at the upper line of this uptrend channel – somewhere around $3100 maybe? New buy zone at what was the old resistance line $2975. Then all the round numbers down to $2700. More below on a possible correction.
Can Silver Break US$35?
NZD silver is up 83 cents or 1.4% from last week. Has broken through the $58 mark. So now that becomes our first buying zone on any dip. Then the green uptrend line. Well below that is the 200-day MA. But silver is looking likely to challenge the all time high above NZ$60.
USD Silver is up $1.09 to $33.94. So can it now break through the key $35 mark? If it can manage that, silver will likely surge a lot higher. Otherwise, the 200 day MA is a strong buy zone. Layer in on any dips down towards there.
Start of a Long-Term Weakening of the US Dollar?
The NZ dollar was up 106 basis points to 0.5811. It is now close to breaking through the overhead resistance line above 0.5800. It looks to us like this might be the start of a longer-term trend of the US dollar weakening against most other currencies. The Kiwi included. If so, we’d expect to see the USD gold and silver prices outpace NZD precious metal prices for a while. Which is the opposite of what we have seen for the last few years.
Need Help Understanding the Charts?
Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver, and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:
Continues below
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Banks Are Changing How They Hold Gold. Should You?
Gold is on the move—and Basel III may be the reason why.
New banking rules are reshaping the gold market, changing how banks hold and trade it. Gold leasing rates are spiking, physical supply is tightening, and the paper gold system may never be the same. But is this just the beginning?
In this week’s feature article, we dive into how Basel III is already shaking up gold prices and why the biggest shockwave might still lie ahead.
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Gold Miners Outperforming Stocks: Start of Capital Rotation?
After underperforming the gold and the general stock market, gold miners might have finally turned a corner:
“Impressive.
Despite the S&P 500 being down year to date, gold miners are now up 33%.
Markets are undergoing a major rotation in my view, with capital flowing into hard asset-based businesses.”
Source.
Silver Also About to Outperform the S&P500? First Time Since 2002
Here’s a good follow on from last week’s article Silver Price Predictions 2025: How High Could Silver Go?
In that we compared silver to the Dow Jones stock market index to come up with a potential future price for silver.
The below excellent chart from Patrick Karim prices the S&P500 (a different US stock index) in silver. They might be close to outperforming stocks too:
“WHO ELSE NOTICED THIS ???
Spx priced in silver currently below the 9 year moving average.
A similar event last happened in 2002.
Not something you want to see in what is suppose to be a still raging bull era for stock markets.”
Source
Silver is not quite there yet. If we see a clear break above US$35 it will likely then play some serious catch-up with gold.
Gold Makes Mainstream News: Short-Term Correction Warning?
As noted, gold this week broke through the round number of $3000. It did it surprisingly easily too. Although before we get too excited, cast your eye back to when gold broke through $2000 back in 2020 during the Covid panic. It did get up close to $2100 but then consolidated for over 3.5 years, before finally breaking above $2100.
Do we think we will see a 3 year consolidation from here?
No, not likely. We are in a very different environment compared to that period. Also when gold approached US$2100 in 2020 and again in 2022, the rises were quite parabolic looking. So after these sorts of moves longer and deeper corrections are to be expected. The current rise has been more of a “climb the stairs” move.
Public retail demand was also very high on both of those occasions. It is quite the opposite right now.
All that being said, we have noted gold popping up in the mainstream press even here in New Zealand lately. In the weekend Stuff wrote:
Amid widespread economic turmoil, the price of gold has soared to levels never seen before. Gold futures surpassed the US$3000 per troy ounce for the first time this week.
Read more
But it was hardly brimming with praise for gold.
Gold also was given a line in this morning’s daily alert from ASB: “Gold hit an all-time high overnight while oil prices eased.” It hardly ever gets a mention there.
We also saw a news item from “The West Australian” last Friday:
Gold price reaches a new record and Macquarie tips a march towards $US3500/oz by the end of 2025
Read more
However on the plus “The West” report also said:
“While the smart money is getting behind gold’s bull run extending throughout 2025, there is less optimism for 2026 and beyond.
“Prices are expected to remain elevated by historic standards, but struggle to rally from forecast all-time highs in 2025,” Macquarie stated.
The investment bank reckons gold will average $US2675/oz over 2026 and continue to decline to an average of $US2400/oz during 2028.”
So the bank analysts still expect gold to fall from next year onwards. Just as they always do!
Overall we’d say these mainstream mentions point to a potential pullback in the short term. Maybe from around US$3100? But this has been a very strong and steady rise. So it’s impossible to say how deep any pullback could be.
In the last 18 months the most we’ve seen has been just over $200. A move like that would take the price back to the 50 day moving average. At some stage we’d expect to see the price return to the 200 day MA, currently at $2630 and rising. But that could still come from prices much higher than they are now.
As we usually say, best to buy in tranches and average your way in.
Please get in contact for a gold or silver quote, or if you have any questions:
- Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
- Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
- or Shop Online with indicative pricing
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