Silver Breakout 2025: GSG Called It Early—Here’s What Comes Next
In June, we highlighted how silver was coiling for a major breakout. Just weeks later, that prediction has played out in full.
NZD silver has blasted to a new all-time high, closing at $64.27 and leaving the March 2025 peak far behind.
USD silver has surged past the $37.50 resistance level, hitting $38.54—its highest price since 2011. It now looks primed to challenge the psychological $50 barrier.
This isn’t a surprise for regular GSG readers. Back in June, we wrote:
“NZD silver is now trading just under its March 2025 high, within striking distance of the 2011 all-time high above $60… momentum is building toward $50 USD.”
Now, with the breakout confirmed, let’s explore what the charts and fundamentals say about what’s next.
What the Charts Are Saying – Breakout Confirmed
The technical picture has strengthened dramatically.
USD Silver: Clearing 14-Year Resistance
USD silver decisively broke above $37.50 and closed at $38.54, confirming the end of a decade-long consolidation. The path to $50 is open, though RSI above 70 suggests short-term pullbacks are likely.
So we may be looking at the start of a multi-year bull phase.
NZD Silver: Blue Sky Territory After Breakout Above $61
In NZD terms, silver has entered uncharted waters. After breaching the March 2025 high, it has now closed at $64.27, a fresh all-time high.
As we anticipated in June, NZD silver’s consolidation above the 200-day moving average became the springboard for its breakout to new highs. Support now sits at the previous high of $61.80, which may act as a floor during any pullbacks.
NZD silver closes at an all time high of $64.27. The previous all time high may now act as a “floor” during any pullbacks.
2024 Breakout Recap: A Stepping Stone to Today’s All-Time Highs (Click to View)
This was our analysis of the 2024 breakout. It set the stage for what’s now playing out in 2025…
In 2024, silver broke above NZ$45 and surged toward NZ$60—exactly where long-term Fibonacci levels projected. By March 2025, NZD silver had come within cents of its 2011 peak, before pulling back in a textbook consolidation.
Silver held its 200‑day MA and formed a classic bull flag in 2024—setting the groundwork for this year’s confirmed breakout.
The 2024 rally wasn’t a failure—it was the foundation.
Why the 2025 Silver Breakout Is Gaining Serious Traction
We don’t think this is just a short term spike. 2025’s silver breakout is being driven by powerful real-world factors:
Loss of Trust in Fiat
Rising global debt, geopolitical risk, and de-dollarisation have chipped away at confidence in traditional currency systems.
Surging Industrial Demand for Silver
Booming demand from solar, EVs, and electrification continues to outpace supply. With declining ore grades and underinvestment in new mines, structural deficits are widening.
Silver is Rising While Gold Corrects
This jump in the silver price is happening while gold is correcting. As is often the case, silver is now playing catch up to gold’s 2025 surge.
Institutional Smart Money Is Buying
What’s also significant right now is who is paying attention to silver.
Earlier this year, American tech investor David Bateman disclosed a massive 12.69 million ounce silver position. Equivalent to roughly 1.5% of global annual supply.
Bateman cited a breakdown in trust, systemic fragility, and the growing need for sovereign (outside-the-system) assets as key reasons for his move. His X post summed it up clearly:
“There is less above-ground silver than gold in the world; silver is essential for manufacturing, silver is in a 5-year structural demand/supply deficit. Silver’s day is coming very soon.”
This breakout suggests that day may have arrived.
Bateman isn’t taking a punt. His deliberate move into silver represents a growing trend among institutional players. They are seeking monetary insurance against what he calls ‘the biggest credit bubble in history.’
And large investors aren’t alone. Central banks are quietly adding gold, and Russia is rumored to be stockpiling silver too.
Silver Market is Tiny
Silver is only a $25 billion dollar annual industry. If just $5 billion (1.5%) of gold’s investment capital flowed into silver, the silver price would go stratospheric.
On the last point Bateman elaborates:
“That’s just 10 investors like me around the whole world. That means a single country investing in silver could cause a generational silver break out, or 10 large $500M investors.”
Financial Repression
Bateman notes:
“There is no way the US can refinance its $28T in maturing treasuries in the next 4 years without an obscene amount of printing.”
This realisation is pushing investors toward borderless, tangible assets that exist outside the financial system.
What Comes Next for Silver Prices?
With silver’s breakout confirmed, let’s see what upside potential exists. NZD silver has already entered blue sky territory. While USD silver’s long-term chart points to even more ambitious targets.
NZD Silver Target: NZ$70–80
NZD silver’s breakout above $61 and record close at $64.27 leaves no historical ceiling. From here, price targets rely on proportional moves from past bull markets.
The 2020 rally saw NZD silver surge from ~$20 to ~$45—a gain of ~125%. Applying a similar percentage gain from the breakout zone projects upside toward NZ$70–80. This also coincides with the rising red trendline in the chart below.
If USD silver clears $50, that momentum could carry NZD silver even higher.
USD Silver: Cup and Handle Targeting $100
A long-term cup and handle pattern on the USD chart has now fully triggered:
- The “handle” breakout around $15 (2019) was the first sign
- The “cup” stretches from $50 (1980) to $3 (1993) and back to $50 (2011)
- A decisive close above $50 would confirm the pattern’s ultimate breakout target: ~$100 USD
The target? Cup depth ($47) + breakout point ($50) = $97–100 USD
This might sound fantastic. But silver doubled in less than 12 months in both 1979/80 and 2011 following similar breakouts. We think even higher prices than these are likely. Check out our full breakdown of silver price projections: What Price Could Silver Reach?
What This Means for Investors Right Now
Silver’s breakout isn’t coming—it’s here. But history suggests this may just be the opening act.
In past bull markets, silver’s biggest moves came after initial breakouts, often catching retail investors flat-footed. This time, institutional buyers are positioning early while retail interest remains muted—a classic contrarian signal.
With NZD silver in blue sky territory and USD silver eyeing $50, any short-term pullbacks could present rare buying opportunities.
Key Takeaways for 2025
✔ Don’t wait for confirmation. Silver’s volatility means waiting often leads to missed moves.
✔ Physical silver premiums are still low. But supply can vanish fast during breakouts, pushing premiums sharply higher.
✔ Silver is still cheap vs gold. The gold-silver ratio remains elevated—but that gap often closes quickly once a breakout takes hold.
✔ Think protection, not speculation. Silver’s role as monetary insurance is as important now as ever.
Silver has shown its hand. The question now isn’t if it will move higher—but whether you’ll be positioned when it does.
Best to be positioned before the squeeze.
At Gold Survival Guide, we don’t just sell bullion. We help you understand why it matters.
We educate first. Sell second.
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Editor’s note: Originally posted 24 July 2019. Updated 9 April 2024 with all new charts, prices, and commentary. Last updated 11 July 2025 with a full rewrite following silver’s breakout to all-time highs.
Glenn's dedication to educating individuals on wealth protection through precious metals has helped over 2400 clients from New Zealand, Australia, USA and Europe to safeguard their financial futures. Passionate about financial independence and lifestyle freedom, Glenn’s mission is to empower others with the knowledge and tools to thrive in today’s volatile economic environment. When he's not advising on precious metals, Glenn enjoys spending time with his family and pursuing outdoor adventures.
Education: University of Auckland Bachelor of Science
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/glenn-thomas-0984a4310/
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