Is This the Start of a Stock Market Crash? What Will Gold Do?

Prices and Charts

Gold Consolidation Continues Above NZ$5000

NZD gold rose $30 from last week to $5155. It has dipped down close to the green uptrend line multiple times. But so far it is consolidating above that line. Various buy zones are marked on the chart in case we see a further dip.

While in USD gold was down just $8 from last week. Although it did dip down below our first buy zone at $2900 a few days ago before bouncing back up. Gold did gap up in late January (when it jumped above $2800). So there is still a decent chance it could backfill down there. Then below that is $2700 and the 200 day moving average at $2600.

As you’ll read below we are pondering a possible stock market fall. We discuss why that could provide us with a buying opportunity for gold and silver too.

Silver Outperforms Gold

Silver did better than gold this week. In NZD terms silver rose 91 cents or 1.6% from a week ago to $56.61. Rising up yet again off the green trendline. That continues to be our first buy zone. With $54 and below that the 200 day MA just below $52.

While in USD silver was up 24 cents (0.8%) to $32.04. Silver got down near the 200 day MA which remains a major buying zone. We’re still watching for silver to clearly break above $33, which will bring in to play our next target at $35.

NZ Dollar Down Just Under 1%

The Kiwi dollar is down 49 basis points or 0.9% from last week. It dipped briefly below 0.5600 but is back up to 0.5660 today. We’re still watching for a retest of the resistance line above 0.5800, assuming that the double bottom at 0.5500 holds.

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below

Why Trump & Musk Are Questioning America’s Gold Reserves

For decades, the U.S. government has assured us that Fort Knox holds 147.4 million ounces of gold—but has anyone actually seen it? The last so-called “audit” was nearly 50 years ago, and even that left more questions than answers.

Now, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are calling for a full audit. Could this reveal a massive cover-up, a financial time bomb, or something else entirely?

This week’s feature dives deep into the mystery, history, and potential consequences of a real Fort Knox audit. If the truth comes out, the impact could be far bigger than you think.

Read this week’s feature article below:

What’s Really in Fort Knox? Why Trump & Musk Want a Full Gold Audit

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Is This the Start of a Stock Market Crash?

The S&P500 has wiped out all of its post US election gains this week. What’s going on?

The excellent Kobeissi letter gave a great rundown on X yesterday. But in summary:

• Stock markets seemed to take a tumble as Trump confirmed in a press conference that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would begin.
• At the same time a Wall Street Journal report said that “the Trump Administration has officially stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine”
• Then China tariffs were raised to 20%.
• Digital currencies market took a tumble with no new news on the US Sovereign Wealth Fund.
• Then US GDP Q1 estimates dropped to -2.8%. Signalling a US recession on the way. “This estimate has now dropped from +3.9% to -2.8% in 4 weeks.

Now this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Slashing government expenditure is likely to lower GDP. If the 1930’s showed us anything – it’s that adding tariffs is likely to be bad for many economies.

But it seems people are starting to catch on.

Even if some of Trump’s moves are positive in the long run, in the shorter term there is likely to be a huge amount of pain. Trump and Musk seem to be following the Argentine example of slashing big and early. It sounds like there was a lot of pain to deal with in Argentina over the past year in order to get them to their first budget surplus in decades.

The US Stock market has just been propped up by the “magnificent seven” tech stocks. But these also look like they might have topped out. So this could be just the start of a larger slide lower.

Back home here in New Zealand the stock market has basically gone sideways since 2020. It’s still below the 2020 high and might be following US markets lower.

Only 4th Time in 140 Years: Stocks Topping Out Vs Gold

Patrick Karim had a couple of great charts that back up the notion that the stock market is topping – at the very least against real assets. When pricing the stock market in gold it looks like the worm is about to turn…

This EXTREMELY RARE event has only happened 3 times in 140 YEARS and it’s unfolding again NOW!

Bookmark this chart because it’s hands down one of the MOST IMPORTANT macro cycle charts you’ll ever see.

Silver, Gold and Oil set to outperform AFTER this event.

Source.

Then this next chart of his is of just the last 2 gold bull markets. As he says:

“Gold, silver, uranium, oil, copper, and friends are set to outperform once this breaks out.”

Source.

Finally here is another one from Northstar & Badcharts. Similar to the first chart it shows what gold and the SPX stock market index did in percentage terms after each of these topping events.

Source.

What Will Precious Metals Do in a Crash?

If history shows us anything it is that gold (and even more so silver) could initially dip in a stock market crash. We saw this in 2008 and again in the covid crash in early 2020.

But they bounced back faster than other assets. With gold leading the way. While silver took more time.

Of course Gold recently hit record highs and silver is a long way from there (in US dollars at least). So perhaps silver might not be affected so badly this time?

This table from 4 days ago backs up the idea that gold will do better during and following a crash. Unlike just about everything else gold is so far holding up pretty well:

Source.

However there is a good chance of a buying opportunity in the metals on any stock market crash. The trouble is the price can continue to tick higher while you wait for that opportunity.

Some people currently are taking an initial position in precious metals at current prices, and then adding on any pullbacks. A sensible option to take.

Please get in contact for a gold or silver quote, or if you have any questions:

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As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

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Have a golden week!

Glenn (and David)
GoldSurvivalGuide.co.nz
Ph: 0800 888 465
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