This Week:
- Gold Cycles vs Property Cycles: When Will Gold Reach Peak Valuation?
- Where Are We in the Psychology of the Silver Market Cycle?
- Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Update
Prices and Charts
Silver Continues to Outperform Gold
Gold in NZ Dollars made a higher low last week and has jumped higher the past couple of days. Now sitting just below the 200 day moving average, we may see it push above that now.
NZD silver has outperformed gold again this week. Silver is up over 2% for the week and back above the 50 day moving average (MA). Look out for a move back to the 200 day MA and then a likely pullback
Has silver finally put in a bottom? There have been so many false starts in recent times that not many would believe it.
We are probably still in the “Depression” phase for silver in terms of investor psychology.
Check out this article for what phase might be next and what might cause it to move out of it…
The New Zealand dollar failed to get conclusively above the 50 day MA. But perhaps we will see the Kiwi level out around the 0.65 mark for a bit now?
Need Help Understanding the Charts?
Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:
Continues below
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Latest Business Confidence Numbers Confirm it’s Too Early to Celebrate the NZ GDP Numbers
We noted last week that it might be premature to get too excited about the latest NZ GDP numbers.
The latest quarterly survey on business opinion by the NZIER adds weight to that statement.
“The survey released on Tuesday revealed that a net 28% of businesses expect economic conditions to worsen. This is the lowest level since March 2009. The New Zealand dollar dropped after the survey results came out, from US66.15c to US65.95c.
The most watched measure in the survey is that for firms’ own domestic trading activity. This is bad too. The NZIER said firms’ own activity for the September quarter and expectations for the next quarter both fell, indicating a slowing in economic growth over the second half of 2018.”
ASB notes:
- NZIER QSBO survey details were softer than we expected and point to a deceleration in GDP growth over H2 2018.
- However, forward-looking indicators remained relatively upbeat. As such we will look to see how key data evolve over the coming months.
- If the growth and employment figures released over the rest of the year are consistent with soggy business confidence, we see it becoming increasingly likely that the RBNZ will pull the trigger and possibly cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) early next year.
As we’ve been pointing out for a while, we think the odds of the next move by the RBNZ being a rate cut are higher than most think. See: The Number One Reason to Buy Gold in New Zealand Today
Gold Cycles vs Property Cycles: When Will Gold Reach Peak Valuation?
Sticking to the topic of cycles we’ve also updated a post from last year looking at how the cycles in property and gold may interplay in the next decade or so.
Despite the pessimism towards precious metals, there is a good argument for gold and silver to rise from here through to 2026 and even beyond. See what property may do during this period. Could there be an even bigger property boom still to come after the current downturn is over?
Your Questions Wanted
Remember, if you’ve got a specific question, be sure to send it in to be in the running for a 1oz silver coin.
Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Update
The latest numbers in the commitment of traders report in the futures markets for gold and silver are even more positive for a rebound or even a rebirth in the gold and silver bull market.
As we point out in the above article, silver made a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past fortnight. So perhaps we are finally seeing the start of a sustained move higher for precious metals? And maybe finally a move out of the “depression” phase silverin particular has been in.
Could be a good time to buy. Check out the deals going currently.
- Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
- Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
- or Shop Online with indicative pricing
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Learn all about the 
Where Are We in the Psychology of the 
The concept of long term cycles and how history at least rhymes, if not repeats, is a topic we find really interesting. If somewhat hard to explain exactly why these cycles repeat. Last year we contemplated whether the new NZ government policies would cause a house price crash. And also whether NZ house prices had […]
This Week: Why Buy 
