Prices and Charts
Weaker Kiwi Boosts NZD Gold Price
Happy New Year! Gold in New Zealand dollars is up $104 since our last weekly update on 18 December, mainly due to the weaker Kiwi dollar. At $4709 it is back not too far from all-time highs, having retested the downtrend line in the wedge consolidation pattern. The bottom seems very likely to be in at $4350. So buying any dip down near the blue uptrend line, which coincides with the 50-day moving average, looks like a good move.
While in US dollars gold is only up $3 since we last wrote at $2650. It has pulled back after breaking above $2700 but it has made a series of higher lows. The bottom looks to be in at $2550.
NZD Silver Hovering Around Key 50-Day Moving Average (MA)
Silver in NZ dollars is up 42 cents since December 18 to $53.50. It has been hovering around the key 50-day MA but continues to hold above $51. The 200-day MA continues to rise and is nearly at $50. Any further dip close to there will be a great buying opportunity. But it may not quite get there, it seems.
In USD terms silver is actually down 41 cents since our last newsletter in 2024. At $30.10 today silver is back just above the 200-day MA after dipping briefly below that over the low-volume holiday period. There is a good chance it has bottomed there so we remain in a great buying zone anywhere around current prices.
NZ Dollar Lowest Since Last Quarter of 2022
As noted already the Kiwi dollar dropped 121 basis points over the last 3 weeks. Down very close to the low from the last quarter of 2022. Now we watch to see if it can make a double bottom there. This is a very good reason to hold gold and silver to protect you from the weakness in the Kiwi dollar.
Need Help Understanding the Charts?
Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:
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Might the NZ Government Start Adding GST to Gold and Silver Bullion in 2025?
In this week’s feature article, we delve into the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implications for gold and silver bullion in New Zealand. Currently, pure gold and silver bullion—defined as gold with a fineness of at least 99.5% and silver at 99.9%—are exempt from GST. However, certain well-known gold coins, such as the American Gold Eagle and South African Krugerrand, which have a purity of 91.67% (22 carats), do attract GST at 15%.
We also explore the history of GST rules concerning precious metals and discuss whether there might be changes to these regulations in the future. Understanding these nuances is crucial for investors to make informed decisions and avoid unexpected costs when purchasing bullion.
Gain insights into the specifics of GST on gold and silver bullion and learn how to navigate these tax implications effectively.
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Is Silver Finally Going to Break Higher?
Here’s a yearly chart of silver going all the way back to 1980. It certainly looks like a great cup and handle pattern and ready to break out. Plus as one commenter of Tavi Costa’s wrote: “you are probably right . I noticed as well that the number of comments in your posts are diminishing , which is a very good ( contrarian ) sign from an investment standpoint.”
We are seeing other contrarian indicators too, like the number of people selling rather than buying is the highest we’ve ever seen. Some might be selling to raise some cash or fund the purchase of a property or travel. But others likely just don’t think gold and silver will go any higher. So will they be the ones to miss out on the real gains yet to come?
It’s hard to find a better-looking chart, in my view, particularly with over 50 years of historical perspective.
After numerous failed attempts to break into new highs, investor sentiment has grown weary, and confidence in a major breakout has waned.
This kind of fatigue often sets the stage for contrarian opportunities—moments where investors shift from being caught off guard to experiencing a wave of FOMO as explosive moves materialize.
Silver is approaching this moment in my view, and after a strong performance in 2024, I believe 2025 will be the year the metal will finally take out its highs from 1980.
Is Silver Finally Going to Break Higher?
H/t to @jameshenryand for point out this chart recently.
Source.
Start of the Year: Good Time to Own Silver
The chart above shows a breakout for silver is likely. While the historical averages say right now is a good time of the year to own silver…
Could a SILVER SPIKE start soon?
This chart from colleague and friend @TheGoldAdvisor suggests a powerful rally could start soon and run until early March.
Source.
Falling Bank Reserves – Crash Coming?
US Banks have been quietly reducing their reserves held with the US central bank at the same time the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Does this spell trouble coming?
BREAKING: Bank reserves dropped by $326 billion in the week ending January 1st, to $2.9 trillion, the lowest since October 2020. This marks the largest weekly decline since April 2022.
Since the September 2021 peak, reserves have declined by a whopping $1.3 trillion.
According to the #Fed, the level of ample reserves when the financial market can smoothly function is $2.8-$3.4 trillion.
Some Wall Street strategists estimate the comfortable level is $3.0-$3.3 trillion.
Meanwhile, the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet (QT) at an average pace of $60 billion PER MONTH.
Is the end of #QT coming soon?
Source: The Kobeissi Letter, zerohedge
Source.
Next week we’ll have our annual “year in review” article and predictions for 2025. But Lobo Tiggre (a.k.a. Louis James) thinks holders of gold should have a happy year in 2025 even after a very hefty rise in 2024:
Gold ends 2024 up over 27%. Futures topped $2,800. Rising another 27% this year would take #gold almost to a real ATH—and that’s not a big stretch. So, yes, I do expect a Happy New Year… But I think copper is likely to do even better by the end of 2025. Source.
As we shared already this is a good time of the year historically to own silver too. Get in touch if you have any questions.
Please get in contact for a gold or silver quote, or if you have any questions:
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- or Shop Online with indicative pricing
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