What Will Happen With Brexit?

This Week:

  • What Will Happen With Brexit?
  • Gold – A Bob Each Way?
  • Does a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Make Sense? Will it be Good or Bad?
  • Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing to Gold, & Gold/Silver Ratio – Jan 2019

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

Looking to sell your gold and silver?

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Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $1837
Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $695

Gold Bouncing Back Already?

Gold in NZ dollars has bounced back about 1% this week. This was after a surprisingly small $50 per ounce fall. The price remains well above the moving averages.

The RSI overbought/oversold indicator has pulled back to about 60 now. So getting close to neutral. However we may still see a further fall to make a lower low maybe around the $1850 mark?

NZ Dollar Gold Chart

NZD silver has fallen further than gold. It has now touched the 200 day moving average. The RSI is also very close to neutral now. But there is still a chance of a further retracement back to around $22 perhaps.

If you’ve been looking to buy silver we are getting close to a good buy zone now.

NZ Dollar Silver Chart

The brief fall in both metals has been largely due to a weaker Kiwi dollar – dipping sharply this week.

The NZ Dollar now sits just above 0.6700. It’s once again below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. With the RSI neutral it’s a tough call as to whether it makes a lower low now or turns higher. We’re leaning towards a lower low.

NZ Dollar Chart

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below


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Will a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Be Good or Bad?

This may not be our preferred outcome but a gold revaluation has happened in the past. So it’s worth considering what the implications of this would be.

In this article we’ll explain:

  • Why a gold revaluation could take place
  • How this $10,000 revaluation could work
  • How it would impact a countries GDP
  • Why the figure of $10,000 is used
  • How a gold revaluation would affect the average working person
  • Whether a gold revaluation would be a good thing or a bad thing

Does a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Make Sense? Will it be Good or Bad?

Does a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Make Sense? Will it be Good or Bad?

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Latest Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing toGold, & Gold/Silver Ratio

There was a lot of volatility towards the end of 2018.

How did this affect various measures we use to value and compare gold to other assets such as:

  • Shares versus Gold Ratio
  • Gold Silver Ratio
  • Housing to Gold Ratio

Latest Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing to Gold, & Gold/Silver Ratio

Latest Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing to Gold, & Gold/Silver Ratio

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Gold – A Bob Each Way?

Last week we looked at the issues faced by the Federal reserve continuing it’s “quantitative tightening” programme and interest rates rises.

Murray Dawes makes the point that regardless of what the US Fed does here gold stands to benefit over the next year…

Is it time for gold to shine once more?
 
I’ve had very little interest in gold for years. After the huge smashing it received between 2012 and 2015, with gold stocks plummeting up to 90% or more, I decided not to play too heavily in the sector. But over the last few years we have seen a slow grinding rally that has built a nice base for a possible launch to higher prices.
 
When I look at the situation in the world and contemplate what could benefit under most scenarios, gold actually sticks out. If the US Fed completely takes fright at the market’s weakness, and backs off from rate rises or even starts printing money again, the US dollar should weaken substantially and gold should benefit from that and lower rates.
 
But if the Fed holds its course and continues to raise rates to the point where the equity markets tumble again, gold should benefit from safe haven buying despite the higher rates.
 
Gold looking good
Gold Monthly Buy Signals
 
Source: Tradingview.com


I can make a case that gold should perform fairly well whatever happens from here over the next year or so.

 
We have seen a monthly buy pivot last month from the buy zone of the previous up-wave so from a technical viewpoint it’s all systems go for gold until we see a monthly sell pivot.”

What Will Happen With Brexit?

Hard to miss the kerfuffle over Brexit during the past week or 2. But just what are the likely impacts going to be?

Simon Angelo at Money Morning NZ provided an excellent summary of the possible outcomes given that Brexit is scheduled to take place on March 29.

 “Scenario #1: May pulls a rabbit out of the hat and somehow uses the power of this crushing vote to lean on the EU for a better deal and rush it through in time.

Seems a long shot, given how firm the EU has already been and how any such deal has to be approved by the myriad of member states. However, stranger things have happened. Should you believe this a possibility, I would buy GBP and LSE (London Stock Exchange) picks now and wait for the boost.

And perhaps the UK’s bargaining position has not been fully realised. Just under one-in-five German cars such as BMW are sold to Britain. The biggest EU state does not want them crashing off that road.

Scenario #2: May fails the confidence vote and this leads to a successful call for a new country referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU at all.

…[Obviously this didn’t happen as May survived the no confidence vote]

Scenario #3: More time is sought, Brexit drags on, and a deal with compromises chomping at the edges is slowly pushed through.

The 29 March deadline would have to be extended. It would not surprise me if this is the most likely outcome. My observation of living in an old country in Europe is that things take far longer than they do in the New World. It took three months for us to open a bank account, and a year to start the repairs on my apartment building. This seems perfectly normal. Europeans are used to delay. As a New Zealander, I thought I’d gone back 30 years.

In terms of the markets under this scenario, there would be slower improvement and things may get worse before they get better. But there will be an eventual turn as the UK and EU finally find ground and continue to hobble along together but apart.

Scenario #4: The UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and falls on WTO rules.

This is my personal favourite and a real chance for the UK to find independence and potential success. Let’s face it: the Eurozone has been a dead space of anaemic growth and declining opportunity when compared to advancing regions such as the Asia-Pacific.

Done well, the UK can cut regulation, taxes, become the Singapore of Europe and forge new free-trade relationships with faster-growing nations. Trump has already expressed his concerns that May’s Brexit deal could derail a US-UK free-trade agreement. So, with this out of the way, the UK could well become a favoured trading partner with the world’s largest economy.

This path is the riskiest, and there would be a long period where the UK finds itself cut adrift and in total need of reinvention. It took independent Singapore more than 20 years to rise through such challenges.

In this case, market opportunity in the UK would be a risky and very long-term bet. I’d still be buying, though, if there’s a major sale at the store.

Well, it could even go other ways, but for me to suggest any further would be simply like throwing a dart at the dartboard after one too many pints at the pub.”

On top of the Brexit uncertainty we’ve also got slowing Chinese GDP growth, a US Government shutdown, and trade wars.

So there are a host of geopolitical issues currently in the air.

The global elite aren’t seeing things as too that rosy either. At the yearly gathering at Davos…

“…PWC has released its annual global CEO survey with the results showing an increasingly pessimistic outlook.

Nearly 30 per cent of the 1300 business leaders PWC polled believe global economic growth will decline in the next 12 months.

This time last year just five per cent were feeling gloomy – something PWC describes as a record jump in pessimism.”

Source.

Which could be why Billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell told Bloomberg he’s stocking up on gold for the first time in his life.

Time to follow him perhaps?

Check out the deals available currently.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

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This Weeks Articles:

Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing to Gold, & Gold/Silver Ratio – Jan 2019

Tue, 22 Jan 2019 12:17 PM NZST

It’s time for another updated look at a number of gold and silver charts and gold ratios including: Shares versus Gold Ratio Gold Silver Ratio Housing to Gold Ratio Dow/GoldRatio The relationship between gold and shares is best tracked by the Dow/Gold ratio. The Dow/Gold ratio takes the value of the US Dow Jones […]

The post Gold Ratios Update: Dow/Gold, NZ Housing to Gold, & Gold/Silver Ratio – Jan 2019 appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

Does a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Make Sense? Will it be Good or Bad?

Mon, 21 Jan 2019 5:42 PM NZST

A reader recently asked about a gold revaluation: Does revaluing gold to $10k usd with all the major countries make sense? The US government wants the usd to remain the world’s reserve currency, but it has a very high government debt to GDP ratio. Historically, nations with a >90% ratio end up collapsing. If all […]

The post Does a Gold Revaluation to US$10,000 Make Sense? Will it be Good or Bad?appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

History Shows: 7 Straight Days of Silver Price Rises Equals More to Come

Sat, 19 Jan 2019 10:10 AM NZST

This Week: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction: What Impact Did it Have in 2018? What about 2019? 2018-2019 Pop Goes the Bubble History Shows: 7 Straight Days of Silver Price Rises Equals More to Come Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $1822 […]

The post History Shows: 7 Straight Days of Silver Price Rises Equals More to Comeappeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

2018-2019 Pop Goes the Bubble

Wed, 16 Jan 2019 11:27 AM NZST

2018-2019 POP GOES THE BUBBLEDarryl Schoon outlines why he believes the asset bubble inflated since 2008 started to pop at the end of 2018. He also briefly explains a new venture he is involved in with. A gold and silver streaming company, that importantly (and unlike other streaming companies) will hold onto the bullion it receives until after the […]

The post 2018-2019 Pop Goes the Bubble appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing


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Today’s Prices to Buy
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1oz NZ Gold Ingot
$1976
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$794 (price is per kilo only for orders of 25 kgs or more)

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1oz PAMP Suisse 99.99% pure gold bar
PAMP Lunar Goat Gold Bar
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1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin
Gold Maple
$2044    (or $2007 for 10 or more Backdated Year Coins)
1oz Canadian Silver Maple 99.99% pure silver coin
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Tube of 25 $731
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We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
GoldSurvivalGuide.co.nz
Ph: 0800 888 465
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email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
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