Why the RBNZ Will Cut Rates Further Yet


This Week:

  • A Change in Recent Trend – Gold Down But Silver Up
  • Why the RBNZ Will Cut Rates Further Yet
  • Our 5 Most Popular Articles of the Past Year
  • Put Yourself on Your Own Gold Standard

Prices and Charts

Spot Price Today / oz Weekly Change ($) Weekly Change (%)
NZD Gold $1874.44 – $13.04 – 0.69%
USD Gold $1260 +$6.90 + 0.55%
NZD Silver $23.21 + $0.16 + 0.69%
USD Silver $15.60 + $0.30 + 1.96%
NZD/USD 0.6722 +0.0083 + 1.25%

A Change in Recent Trend – Gold Down But Silver Up

Gold in NZ Dollars is down slightly on last week. Although it did break through the $1900 level and set a new almost 3 year high. It has pulled back under $1900 since then, but looks to be building for an approach of the upper trendline.

NZD Gold Chart

In US Dollar terms gold (bottom of the above chart) jumped up sharply this morning
with the US Federal Reserve announcing they were keeping interest rates on hold.

This also spiked the NZ dollar much higher, so hence only a very small rise in NZ Dollar terms. The Kiwi dollar looks to be carving out a bottom currently. But there is tough resistance for it around the 68 cent mark.

NZ Dollar Chart

Below is a longer term view taken from our daily price alerts which is quite revealing (you can sign up for that here if you are thinking of buying and want to keep a close eye on prices). The rise this year has clearly taken gold above the downtrend line since the 2011 high.

The next horizontal resistance line is at $1980, which also coincides with the current uptrend line. So that level could be quite tough to crack and may require more than one attack to be breached.

Overall though it’s hard to deny that the trend in NZ dollar gold is up. But very few people have yet noticed.

Long term NZ Gold Chart

Silver might have surprised a few people this week. While gold corrected down early in the week, silver actually held up pretty well. In fact silver is actually up on last week while gold is down.

Perhaps the beginnings of something more significant for silver? Too early to say. We’ll need to see it breach the $24.50 level to show that higher prices are ahead.

NZD Silver Chart

The long term silver chart below is also quite instructive. Silver in NZ dollars looks to have bottomed out over the past 16 months. Bouncing around between $20 and $25. It has also broken above the downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Now also nudging above the next trendline too.

NZD Silver Long Term

So potentially this could be a good low risk entry point to get some financial insurance, that also has plenty of upside potential.

Why the RBNZ Will Cut Rates Further Yet

You’ll recall the RBNZ surprised with a rate cut last week. Well, here’s a good reason why the RBNZ will cut rates much further yet. Our rates are still higher than inflation by a larger margin than many nations.

See how NZ compares worldwide with interest rates versus the pace of inflation right now. There are a lot of countries with inflation rates close to or lower than the rate of inflation. So it shouldn’t surprise that gold has headed higher this year.

Central banks last week
Malaysia holds rate at 3.25% (inflation 3.5%), Canada holds rate at 0.5% (inflation 2.0%), Georgia holds at 8% (inflation 5.6%), New Zealand surprises with cut to 2.25% (deflation of 0.5% in Q4 2015), South Korea holds rate at 1.5% for 9th month (inflation 1.3%), European Central Bank fires its bazooka, cuts key rate to 0.00% (deflation of 0.2% per year in Feb), Peru holds at 4.25% after 4 hikes (inflation 4.5%), Poland holds at record-low 1.5% for 12th month running (deflation of 0.7% per year in January)…
Central banks this week
Monday sees Kazakhstan (currently at 17.0% with inflation at 15.2%) and Mozambique (10.75% vs 12.2%); Tuesday sees Japan (now negative 0.1% rate on commercial banks’ excess reserves, still 0.3% discount rate since 2008, facing inflation of 0.0% in January); Wednesday sees Iceland (last held at 5.75% with inflation at 2.2%) and United States Federal Reserve (raised to 0.5% ceiling in December, inflation last seen at 1.4%); Thursday brings Indonesia (7.0% vs 4.4%), UK’s Bank of England (0.5% vs 0.3%), Norway (0.75% vs 3.1%), Serbia (4.5% vs 1.5%), Switzerland (-0.75% vs -0.8%), South Africa (6.75% vs 6.2%), Egypt (9.25% vs 9.1%) and Chile (3.5% vs 4.7%); Friday brings Russia (11.0% vs 8.1%) and Mexico (3.25% vs 2.9%)…Via Adrian Ash Bullionvault.

Of course New Zealand as a lessor economy must have higher rates than the major nations in order to attract the capital needed to fund our debt based economy. You can see the same thing amongst many developing nations in the stats above too. That is their interest rates are higher than inflation rates.

But that said we still have some room to go lower. Especially if more nations “go negative”.


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Our 5 Most Popular Articles of the Past Year

We thought you might be interested to see what other people have found interesting on the website this past year.

Here are our top 5 most read articles over the last 12 months:

How Much Gold Does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Have?

RBNZ GoldWe’ve had the odd query from other New Zealanders asking “With all the recent reports of ‎various Central Banks of the world buying gold, just how much gold does the Reserve ‎Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) actually have?”‎

So we thought we should publish the specifics.  See what they are here

PAMP Suisse Gold / Silver vs Local NZ Gold / Silver: Which should I buy?

From the first time buyer of gold or silver, a question we often get is “How do I choose between buying PAMP Suisse gold and silver bars versus local New Zealand refined gold and silver bars?”

Here’s 3 factors to consider in making your decision. Read More

RBNZ Bank “Bail In” Scheme for Bank Failures: The Open Bank Resolution (OBR)

RBNZ Bank Bail In SchemeHere’s a quick video summary of the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand’s Open Bank Resolution (OBR) scheme. Implemented in June 2013 as an alternative to a government (i.e. tax payer) bail out of any failed bank in New Zealand, this rather innocuous sounding name actually means a Cyprus like bank “bail in” or depositor “Hair cut” as a means of getting sufficient capital to keep a failing bank operating. Watch

Dubai – City of Gold: A Visit to Dubai “Gold Souk”

Dubai Gold SoukA brief visit to Dubai gave us the chance to check out their famous Gold Souk or Gold Market.

Like much of the east gold maintains an important role in society here. It is still a common form of saving – particularly in jewellery form much like in India, (who also happens to be Dubai’s largest customer when it comes to gold).

The scale of this attachment to gold in the East was borne out by the sheer size of the Gold Souk. Read more

NZ Gold Coins (and Silver Coins) or NZ Gold Bars (and Silver Bars): Which Should I Buy?

Coins or bars?Should I buy gold coins or should I buy gold bars?

It’s a very common question for new gold buyers.  And one we hear a lot.
Same goes for silver coins versus silver bars.  Confusion often reigns for the novice gold and silver investor.

Just to complicate things even further there’s the question of buying locally produced gold and silver coins and bars versus those from overseas.  Some common overseas coins include South African Krugerrands, American Gold and Silver Eagles, Canadian Maples, Austrian Philharmonics.  Closer to home we have the Australian Gold Nugget, Gold Kangaroo, and Silver Koala. Read more

Jim Rickards: Put Yourself on Your Own Gold Standard

We’re waiting on an advance copy that we were offered from the publisher of Jim Rickards new book due out next month “The New Case for Gold”. So keep an eye out for our review of that in coming weeks.

Rickards had a great explanation this week that even if central banks won’t do
it, why you should put yourself on your own gold standard.

“As long as you can own gold, you can put yourself on your own gold standard by converting paper money to gold. I recommend you do that to some extent. Not all in, but I recommend having 10% of your investable assets in gold for the conservative investor, and maybe 20% for the aggressive investor — no more than that.

Those are pretty high allocations relative to what people have. Most people own no gold, and all the institutions combined have only a limited allocation to gold. So even if you take the low end of this range, you’re still nowhere near 10%. In fact, institutions could not raise their gold allocation even to a few percent. There’s not enough gold in the world — at current prices — to satisfy that demand. So it’s got this huge upside associated with it.

Still, central banks don’t want to go to a gold standard. But if gold is a barbarous relic, if gold has no role in the monetary system, if gold is a “stupid” investment, then why do the Chinese keep buying it? Are they stupid?

Gold has already rallied about 20% since the start of the year. If some scenarios play out, you are going to see the price of gold go up… a lot more. And it may go up a lot in a very short period of time. It’s not going to go up 10% per year for seven years and the price doubles. It could have a kind of a steady upward movement… and then a spike… and then another spike… and then a super-spike. The whole thing could happen in a matter of 90 days — six months at the most.

When that happens, you’re going to have two Americas. You’re going to have an America that was not prepared. Paper savings will be wiped out; 401(k)s will be devalued; pensions, insurance and annuities will be devalued through inflation… Because remember, it’s not just the price of gold going up.”

If you want to go on your own gold standard you know where to come to do it!

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This Weeks Articles:

Buy gold & Silver NZ

Why the War on Cash Will Spread to New Zealand

2016-03-10 00:30:18-05

This Week: Deflation Coming to NZ? RBNZ Worried it is Inflation Versus Deflation and What Comes Next? Why the War on Cash Will Spread to New Zealand But Federal Reserve Worried About Inflation? No Specials This Week Sorry Ph 0800 888 465 and speak to David or reply to this email if you’d like a chat about buying gold […]

Read More…
Buy gold & Silver NZ

A Radical New Tax Is Coming… Here’s How to Escape

2016-03-16 17:31:12-04

Last week the European Central Bank increased its QE and made interest rates even more negative. See why this policy is likely to spread further around the world… A Radical New Tax Is Coming to America…Here’s How to Escape By Justin Spittler Europe’s central bank just fired the “bazooka.” Dispatch readers know governments have been using […]

Read More…
Buy gold & Silver NZ

How You Could Make 10, 20, Even 50 Times Your Money in the Coming Gold Mania

2016-03-16 17:46:24-04

We prefer gold (and silver) in physical form for their financial insurance properties and as a hedge against governments and central banks. But if you are after potentially very lucrative profits, then after a terrible time in recent years, it is gold stocks that might be worth considering again now… How You Could Make 10, […]

Read More…
Buy gold & Silver NZ

How Negative Interest Rates Will Turbocharge the Migrant Crisis

2016-03-16 18:03:05-04

Have you heard of a “basic income”? It’s an idea that’s gaining traction in many countries. The topic has been brought up by labour leader Andrew Little recently and even made the headlines in the UK Independent website. (See: New Zealanders want to give everyone a ‘citizen’s wage’ and scrap benefits). At a glance it […]

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

Today’s Spot Prices
Spot Gold
NZ $ 1874.44 / oz US $ 1260 / oz
Spot Silver
NZ $ 23.21 / oz
NZ $ 746.20 / kg
US $ 15.60 / oz
US $ 501.60 / kg

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide
Today’s Prices to Buy
1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar
1oz NZ Gold Ingot
1kg NZ 99.9% pure silver bar
1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
$843.21 (price is per kilo for orders of 1-4 kgs)
$827.16  (price is per kilo only for orders of 5 kgs or more)
1oz PAMP Suisse 99.99% pure gold bar
PAMP Lunar Goat Gold Bar
1kg PAMP 99.9% pure silver bar
PAMP Silver
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin
Gold Maple
1oz Canadian Silver Maple 99.99% pure silver coin (Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)
Silver Maple Silver Box
Tube of 25 $760.50
Box of 500 $14,465
(Fully insured and delivered)


  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
  • Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
  • Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
  • Note: Your funds are deposited into our suppliers bank account only. We receive a finders fee direct from them only.

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Our Mission

  1. To demystify the concept of protecting and increasing ones wealth through owning gold and silver in the current turbulent economic environment.
  2. To simplify the process of purchasing physical gold and silver bullion in NZ – particularly for first time buyers.

We look forward to hearing from you soon.Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
Ph: 0800 888 465
From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898
email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.

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  1. Pingback: Coming: NZ's own form of "helicopter money"? - Gold Survival Guide

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