The In Gold We Trust Report is out for 2025 — and once again, it’s a must-read for anyone serious about protecting their wealth.
We’ve been following this report for over a decade, and we’ve even dined with Ronni Stoeferle, one of its authors, right here in Auckland. This year’s edition continues the tradition of deep insight into monetary trends, gold, and the fragile state of the global economy.
In this article, we break down 12 of the biggest insights from the 2025 report. Whether you’re new to gold investing or a long-time bullion buyer, this summary will show you what to watch and why gold remains a safe harbour in uncertain times.
Table of contents
Estimated reading time: 1 minute
What is the In Gold We Trust Report?
The In Gold We Trust Report is published each year by Incrementum AG, a European-based investment firm led by Ronni Stoeferle and Mark Valek. It’s widely respected as the most comprehensive report on gold, monetary policy, and the global economy.
The 2025 edition is titled:
“The Big Long”
We’d add a subtitle:
“The Strategic Case for Gold in a Restructuring World”
It covers:
- Global monetary shifts
- Inflation and financial repression
- Gold as a safe-haven and portfolio stabiliser
- Deep data, hundreds of charts, and years of historical context
You can access the full 2025 report here:
In Gold We Trust 2025 Report (official site)
12 Big Takeaways from the 2025 In Gold We Trust Report
The 2025 In Gold We Trust Report is built around a core thesis titled “The Big Long” — a long-term, strategic outlook on gold driven by deep shifts in monetary, economic, and geopolitical systems.
Here’s our breakdown of 12 of the most important insights:
1–2. The Big Realignment
1. The Global Power Shift Is Accelerating
Geopolitical power is moving from a unipolar U.S.-led world toward a multipolar system. China, Russia, and others are asserting control, challenging Western monetary dominance.
2. De-Dollarization Is No Longer Fringe
A growing number of countries are reducing reliance on the USD, preferring local currencies and gold reserves. This trend is no longer theoretical — it’s actively reshaping global finance.
Read more: The Two-Tiered Gold Market: Why Central Banks Are Hoarding Gold While Retail Investors Sell Theirs
3–4. The Big Economic Cooling
3. Recessionary Signals Are Mounting
With rising global uncertainty, especially in trade and fiscal policy, major indicators are flashing red. The probability of a U.S. recession has reached 64%, according to Polymarket.
“Most investors are currently underestimating the real likelihood of another recession…”
4. Gold Is Detaching from Real Interest Rates
For decades, rising real interest rates meant falling gold prices — but not anymore. Gold has risen despite higher real rates, showing a deepening mistrust of fiat systems.
5–6. The Big Wave: Is the Next Inflation Wave Coming?
5. A New Inflation Wave May Be Forming
Although CPI may dip short term, inflationary forces — central bank interventions and deglobalisation — are building a second wave.
6. Financial Repression Is Here to Stay
Governments are keeping real interest rates negative through stealth. Expect yield curve control, helicopter money, and even Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) measures to continue.
“The use of one or more of these instruments is a foregone conclusion.”
7–8. The Big Print: Fiat Devaluation Benefits Gold
7. The Era of ‘Sound Money’ Is Long Gone
Fiat money is being systematically devalued by design to paper over government deficits. Inflation is not just an accident — it’s a policy tool.
8. Gold Is Regaining Monetary Trust
With central banks in Asia leading the charge, gold is returning to its role as real money. The shadow gold price (full gold backing of base money) is far above current levels.
“A return to a fully backed gold currency would be possible if the shadow gold price were reached.”
Related: How Do You Value Gold? What Price Could Gold Reach? 2025 Predictions
9–12. The Big Rotation: Gold’s Performance Outlook
9. Institutional Portfolios Are Still Underweight Gold
Despite gold’s resilience, family offices only allocate 1% of their portfolios to precious metals — well below private equity or even art.
10. ETF Flows Lag Behind Despite Gold’s Gains
Gold ETF inflows remain low compared to equities and bonds, suggesting a disconnect between macro outlook and investor behaviour — and an opportunity.
11. The Gold/Silver Ratio Remains Extreme
Silver remains undervalued historically:
- Gold/silver ratio is at historically high levels
- Silver outperformed gold in 6 of the last 7 bull markets since 1967
This points to an attractive long-term opportunity.
“The price performance of the white metal has so far remained below the historical average.”
12. Bitcoin vs Gold Debate Is Evolving
Bitcoin is no longer seen as a rival, but a complement to gold. Together, they offer a hedge against fiat collapse — gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity.
“Our credo for years has been: ‘Gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity.’”
Buying both assets is an active decision to turn your back on the fiat world.
The IGWT 2025 Reports Overall Conclusion:
The Big Long is a strategic investment decision based on several reinforcing pillars:
- the inevitable restructuring of the global financial and monetary system in the face of deep political and economic turmoil.
- an inflationary attitude on the part of governments and central banks – monetary climate change.
- the economic upturn in regions with an affinity for gold, particularly Asia and the Arab world.
- the reallocation of capital out of US assets (USD, US stocks, US Treasuries), which have stolen the show from gold for many years.
- the expected outperformance of performance gold, i.e. silver, mining stocks and commodities.
Why This Matters for New Zealand Investors
- NZD is vulnerable in a global currency realignment
- Local inflation is eating away at purchasing power
- Our market is closely tied to global interest rates and trade flows
Gold provides wealth insurance in this environment — no matter what the Reserve Bank or Wall Street does.
Our Long History with IGWT
We’ve shared this report every year for over a decade — and dined with Ronni Stoeferle in Auckland back in 2013. His insights continue to shape our thinking.
See our full event recap from that visit
Stay Ahead of the Curve
The 2025 IGWT report clearly shows: the rising gold price is not a short term trend but a part of a global structural change.
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