Double Bottom for Gold in NZD?

Gold Survival Gold Article Updates:

Nov 29, 2013

This Week:

  • Double Bottom for Gold in NZD?
  • China and Turkey still buying plenty
  • A Follow Up on GLD
  • Negative Interest rates on Bank deposits coming?
  • USA OBR on the Way?


Double Bottom for Gold in NZD?

Gold and silver have both managed to bounce off previous lows and remain above support today.

NZD gold is up $16.61 per ounce or 1.10% on last week to $1526.00. While silver in NZ dollars is at $24.26, up just 15c per ounce or 0.62%.

You can see in the chart below that gold in NZ dollars bounced off the $1500 level which were the lows of October and may be eeking out a double bottom. 

NZD Gold Chart

As we said last week this all depends on whether US Dollar gold heads down to retest the June lows at US$1180. We’ve read a few opinions over the week and both sides have good arguments for why the metals could go higher or lower from here. 

All we can says is it looks quite positive that they haven’t gone any lower so far but only time will tell. But NZ gold is close to a 4 year low right now, so if you don’t have any then it could be a good chance to grab a position but keep some powder dry in case of further weakness.

Meanwhile NZD silver is also near the June lows – prices not seen since mid 2010. But unlike gold is right on long term support. 


So this too would make a good time to take a position. And unlike in April and June demand (at least here in the west) is at much lower levels which translates into premiums above spot on all products that are much lower than April. So the price to buy at these lows is actually less than it was back in June.


China and Turkey still buying plenty

As just mentioned demand is pretty quiet here (and elsewhere in the western world too by all accounts) but China and Turkey are hitting records as of the end of October.

—–

“New data meantime said gold imports to China rose almost 20% to a near-record monthly high in October, with 130 tonnes being shipped through Hong Kong on what local analysts and traders called “stockpiling” ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities. 

Gold imports to Turkey last month took year-to-date inflows to a record, the Istanbul Gold Exchange showed on its 18-year data series, more than doubling from 2012 to 251 tonnes as buyers in the world’s 4th largest consumer nation took advantage of the sharpest price drop in 38 years.”

Source.

—–


A Follow Up on GLD

Last week we reported that according to Reuters…

“Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded, fell 1.5 tonnes to 863.01 tonnes on Tuesday, their lowest since February 2009.

We just checked the GLD website and it is down to 860.31 tonnes today, another 2.7 tonnes gone.

Maybe Paulson and other large GLD holders are starting to exit some positions as we write as part of this washout postulated by PAMP? It seems we may need one final push lower to exit the last of the weak hands.”

Funnily enough over the weekend Bloomberg reports that Paulson reportedly said to clients he wouldn’t personally add any more gold here because the inflation he expected hasn’t shown up…

—–

“Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told clients he wouldn’t personally invest more money in his gold fund because its not clear when inflation will accelerate, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Paulson, who has been betting that gold would rally as a hedge against inflation as central banks flood the global economy with money, has lost 63 percent year-to-date in the PFR Gold Fund, said the person, who was briefed on the returns and asked not to be identified because the information in private. The fund, which has shrunk to $370 million, with most of that John Paulson’s own money, fell 1.2 percent in October, the person said.

The hedge-fund firm will maintain the fund’s positions in gold stocks and let options related to bullion expire, Paulson said at the firm’s annual meeting yesterday in Paulson & Co.’s New York office, according to the person.”

Source.

—–

So maybe he won’t be selling but he doesn’t sound like he’ll be buying right now either. Perhaps this is as good a contrarian signal as we will get? We note that the GLD ETF is now down to 843.21 tonnes – 17 tonnes less than last week – and probably another 17 tonnes bound for China.

GLD Holdings are at their lowest level since prior to February 2009. Down 37.5% on the 1350.82 tonnes they were at the end of 2012. 

Also following on from last week was the report of yet another overnight tripping of the switch at the Comex exchange circuit breakers due to a large sell order in low volume. As ZeroHedge notes it is the 4th such incident in the past few months.

However we think the significance of this and the prior occurrence was that it only caused the price to fall $10 and didn’t head any lower as happened previously this year, when these dips lower tripped other stop loss orders. So this could perhaps be an indicator that there are few sellers left in the futures market currently? 


Negative Interest rates on Bank deposits coming?

We’ve noticed negative interest rates have been mentioned this past week more than once. Firstly a representative from the European Central Bank (ECB) inferred that one of the tools still in their kit could be to make the deposit rate it charges banks negative. Supposedly this would be to force banks to loan money instead of just depositing it with the ECB. Source.

Next we noticed a report on US banks warning they may have to charge depositors if the Fed lowers the interest rate it pays banks for holding excess reserves with them. Source.

Even though the talk of “tapering” continues, our guess is we will see more QE yet and these reports show the possibility of banks actually charging people to hold their money is not out of the question, although may be a way off yet.


USA OBR on the Way?

Looks like the US is beginning to formalise its own Open Bank Resolution (OBR). (See here if you want to know about the NZ Reserve Bank’s OBR or depositor haircut policy)

“Bernanke Says Failing Bank Process Needed to Reduce Crises …

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a process under development that would allow regulators to take down a failing bank will help ensure investors discipline weak firms and prevent them from taking risks without consequence. “As we try to make the financial system safer, we must inevitably confront the problem of moral hazard,” Bernanke said today in remarks at an International Monetary Fund conference in Washington. “Market discipline can only limit moral hazard to the extent that debt and equity holders believe that, in the event of distress, they will bear costs.” – Bloomberg

This to us sounds a lot like our OBR, where the Central Bank can shut down and put a freeze on depositors funds, then reopen fast but only giving depositors access to a limited amount of their deposits. More evidence we reckon of the Central Planners getting ready for credit crunch part 2.


We’ve got a number of articles posted on the site this week…

Greatest opportunityFirst up is The Greatest Opportunity in 30 Years which shows just how undervalued gold and silver stocks are compared to the metals themselves. The extremes are quite surprising… even if it may take some cajones to pull the trigger and buy.

The Greatest Opportunity in 30 Years

HitchingWe don’t feature too much about platinum and palladium but this is an interesting one on just how far out of whack the supply and demand for them have become. However note that here in NZ unlike gold and silver, platinum and palladium do attract GST so that is a downside to buying them.

Hitch a Ride on This Supply Crunch

ZombiesAs mentioned early we still think we are heading for Credit Crunch 2.0. This article shows just how they managed to paper over the cracks of the financial system. And how changes in accounting rules in 2009 were key in achieving this. 

Zombies Make Dangerous Neighbours

BimetallismThe past few weeks we’ve discussed various ways in which the end game could play out. (By the way – if you want to read past issues just go to the website and look for “Weekly Wanderings” in the menu bar near the top to find past weekly newsletters). While we’re not sure it is the most likely, we hope for a “free market” in money to evolve. This article from Sandeep Jaitly who we’ve mentioned many times in the past outlines how gold and silver as money could work based upon how they did in the distant past.

The Validity of Bimetallism – Sandeep Jaitly

Last week we published our summary of Jeff Berwick’s (of The Dollar Vigilante) presentation at the Sydney Gold Symposium.

This week The Daily Bell published an interview with Jeff that covered some of the points he covered in Sydney as well as some expansion of these ideas. It has links to a number of the products Jeff has on internationalising yourself and your assets and so is worth checking out if you have any inclination towards that.

Jeff Berwick on Practical Solutions to a Collapsing World Order

Also, speaking of Gold Symposium presenters, Chris Powell of GATA appeared in a couple of places this past week.

In an interview with King World News he elaborates on a number of the points he made in his recent presentations here and in Sydney. King World News Interview

And also a video interview with Greg Canavan of the Daily Reckoning Australia is worth a look if you prefer watching to reading. As Greg actually hits Chris with a couple of curly questions in areas where he doesn’t agree with GATA. Greg Canavan interviews Chris Powell

Well, that’s about it for this week. As we said earlier both metals in NZ dollar terms are close to 3 to 4 year lows. While that may not be good for those that have bought in that time (patience is a must in gold and silver), it is handy to anyone with some excess monopoly money to exchange for some real stores of value. As ever, let us know if you have any questions or would like a “demo” quote to see how the buying process works.


1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)

3. or Online order form with indicative pricing 


Have a golden week!

Glenn (and David)

goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

Ph: 0800 888 465
From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898
email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

Follow us on Twitter Find us on Facebook G+


This Weeks Articles

 

 

More Weakness Ahead for Gold and Silver?
More Weakness Ahead2013-11-20 21:55:54-05

Gold Survival Gold Article Updates  Nov 20, 2013   This Week: More Weakness Ahead for Gold and Silver? More Suspicious Sell Orders PAMP Forecasts Coming to Fruition? More on Why Chinese Gold Demand May Be Higher Than Official Reports More Weakness Ahead for Gold and Silver? Gold and silver in NZ dollars have continued to […]
read more…

The Greatest Opportunity in 30 Years
Opportunity2013-11-21 17:34:09-05

We knew gold and silver stocks were undervalued compared to the metals themselves. But the below charts show just how extreme this has become. It may indeed take some intestinal fortitude but it seems there is a buying opportunity presenting itself…   The Greatest Opportunity in 30 Years By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst I […]
read more…

Hitch a Ride on This Supply Crunch
Hitch-a-ride2013-11-26 19:08:39-05

There’s two other metals that we don’t talk about so often, but whose fundamentals have gotten very favourable in the past year or so… Hitch a Ride on This Supply Crunch By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst Can you name a commodity that’s currently in a supply deficit—in other words, production and scrap material […]
read more…

Zombies Make Dangerous Neighbours
Zombies2013-11-27 15:31:23-05

Do you know what caused US stock markets to begin rise in 2009? If you’re unfamiliar with the change in accounting laws that occurred then, this article is a must read. It shows how the cracks have merely been papered over…   Zombies Make Dangerous Neighbors By Doug French, Contributing Editor On March 16, 2009, […]
read more…

The Validity of Bimetallism – Sandeep Jaitly
Vaility of Bimetallism2013-11-27 19:18:25-05

This week we stumbled across an old article by Sandeep Jaitly of FeketeResearch and the Gold Basis Service on the topic of “bimetallism” that we thought was well worth sharing. Bimetallism is defined on wikipedia as:  “In economics, bimetallism is a monetary standard in which the value of the monetary unit is defined as equivalent both[1] to a certain quantity of gold and to […]
read more…

 

 

The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:


We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.

 

 

 

Today’s Spot Prices

Spot Gold
NZ $1526/ oz
US $1240.33 / oz

Spot Silver
NZ $24.26/ oz
NZ $780/ kg
US $19.72/ oz
US $633.98/ kg

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide

Today’s Prices to Buy

1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar

1oz NZ Gold Ingot
 

$1577.88

1kg NZ 99.9% pure silver bar

1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
 

$858
(price is per kilo for orders of 1-4 kgs)

$848.40
(price is per kilo only for orders of 5 kgs or more)

 

 

 

 

1oz PAMP Suisse 99.99% pure gold bar

PAMP Gold

$1624.41

1kg PAMP 99.9% pure silver barPAMP Silver 

 

 

 

 

 


$908

1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin
Gold Maple


$1640.45
1oz Canadian Silver Maple 99.99% pure silver coin (Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)



Silver Maple



Silver Box

Tube of 25 $759.50Box of 500 $14350(Fully insured and delivered) 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


Note:
– Prices are excluding delivery
– 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
– 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
– Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
– Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
– Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
Note: Your funds are deposited into our suppliers bank account only. We receive a finders fee direct from them only.




Can’t Get Enough of Gold Survival Guide?
If once a week isn’t enough sign up to get daily price alerts every weekday around 9am Click here for more info


Our Mission
1. To demystify the concept of protecting and increasing ones wealth through owning gold and silver in the current turbulent economic environment.

2. To simplify the process of purchasing physical gold and silver bullion in NZ – particularly for first time buyers.

 

 

Get Free Gold & Silver Tips and Deals!

  • Get weekly news and tips on buying, storing, and selling gold and silver.
  • Be the first to know about limited quantity gold and silver deals.
  • Get our free 19 Nuggets on Buying Gold and Silver guide right away to help you become a bullion expert.
Email Address *
First Name
*Required Fields
Note: It is our responsibility to protect your privacy and we guarantee that your data will be completely confidential.

3 thoughts on “Double Bottom for Gold in NZD?

  1. Pingback: Money Manager: Risks Facing the NZ Dollar | Gold Prices | Gold Investing Guide

  2. Pingback: A Fed Policy Change That Will Increase the Gold Price | Gold Prices | Gold Investing Guide

  3. Pingback: The (mini) taper finally occurs | Gold Prices | Gold Investing Guide

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Want to Get the Best Price When Buying or Selling Gold & Silver?

Then you need to time your purchase.

Get a daily price alert every weekday.

You'll receive free charts and analysis of what the price may do to help time your buy or sell and make more profit.

Email Address *
First Name
*Required Fields

You have Successfully Subscribed!