This Week:
- Weekly Price Overview – 8 October 2025
- When Silver Rivalled Gold — And Why It Might Again
- Backwardation Returns — Is Silver Warning of What’s Ahead?
- What the Experts Are Saying
- Why It Matters Now
- Our Take: Physical Tightness Could Widen Premiums Again
- Chart of the Week: Silver’s Still Climbing — But Far From Overheating
- Meme of the Week: Gold Groundhog Day? Another “All-Time High” Again…
- Silver Near $50: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Entry
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Weekly Price Overview – 8 October 2025
Gold and silver extended their breakout this week, with USD and NZD prices hitting new multi-year highs. Continued weakness in the NZ dollar — now in a firm long-term downtrend — is amplifying local gains and keeping precious metals in strong uptrends.
🟡 NZD gold jumped $207.61 to $6,880.03 (+3.11%), pushing right against the upper edge of its rising channel. The RSI remains extreme, but momentum can stay overbought for extended periods in strong bull phases. USD gold rose $125.75 to $3,990.42 (+3.25%), just shy of the key psychological US$4,000 level.
⚪ NZD silver climbed $1.85 to $82.55 (+2.29%) after briefly touching a fresh all-time high early in the week. USD silver gained $1.14 to $47.88 (+2.43%). Yesterday it came within $1 of the historic $50 peak — a level many traders are now watching as potential resistance.
💱 NZD/USD edged up 8 basis points to 0.5800, resting on key support but still trending lower. The weak Kiwi continues to boost local gold and silver prices despite minor USD strength.
📈 Overall, momentum across the precious metals complex remains powerful. Any brief pullbacks are likely to attract buying interest, especially while silver consolidates just below $50 and gold eyes a breakout above $4,000.
When Silver Rivalled Gold — And Why It Might Again
A century ago, silver briefly became more valuable than gold. It sounds impossible — yet history shows it really happened.
This week we revisit that extraordinary moment and ask: could the same forces — soaring industrial demand, tight supply, and a weakening currency system — ever push silver above gold again?
You might be surprised by what the charts (and history) reveal.
Backwardation Returns — Is Silver Warning of What’s Ahead?
Silver is flashing a classic stress signal not seen since 2020 — backwardation.
That’s when spot trades above futures — showing traders want metal now, not a paper promise later.
It’s often a sign of tight supply and growing distrust in the paper market.
To explain that more fully — under normal conditions, precious metals trade in what’s called “contango,” where the futures price is higher than the spot price. This reflects the ‘cost of carry’ — the cost of storing, insuring, and financing metal until that future delivery date.
Backwardation, on the other hand, is the opposite. It occurs when the spot price moves above the futures price, signalling that immediate delivery is valued more highly than future contracts.
In other words, the market is willing to pay a premium for metal in hand — a clear indication of tightness or stress in the physical supply chain.
See chart: Silver Exchange for Physical (EFP) Spread — COMEX Dec 2025 vs LBMA Spot
(Chart shows the spread dropping sharply below zero, indicating backwardation.)
What the Experts Are Saying
Hugo Pascal:
“Short-term stress persists in the silver market. The December 2025 futures contract now trades at a 16¢ discount to LBMA spot — clear backwardation.”
Robert Gottlieb:
“OTC tightness in London continues to worsen as silver borrowing remains persistent.
Lease rates above 6%, and banks sourcing silver in London by borrowing/selling EFPs.
They’re not shorting silver — they’re scrambling for physical supply.”
Source.
David Morgan:
“Backwardation isn’t just a technical term — it’s a canary in the coal mine.
It appears at moments of stress, when people no longer trust paper promises.”
Historically, each time gold or silver slipped into backwardation — 2008, 2011, 2020 — it preceded major price rallies.
Read David’s excellent analysis.
Why It Matters Now
Claudia Merkert, sharing insights from analyst Andrew Lane (Investing.com), highlights that:
“The LBMA holds just 155 million ounces of eligible silver — a fraction of what’s traded daily.
If even a small number of holders demanded physical delivery, it could cause a serious liquidity crunch.”
Lane argues silver could already be undervalued by 100% or more, and warns a true run on physical supply might force a short-covering surge in prices.
Read the full article.
Our Take: Physical Tightness Could Widen Premiums Again
As David Morgan noted — and as we saw in past backwardation episodes — physical premiums often rise sharply when confidence in paper markets weakens.
If this continues, it could take significantly higher prices to draw more physical silver back into the market.
Chart of the Week: Silver’s Still Climbing — But Far From Overheating
While silver is heating up as it tests the all-time nominal high near US$50, Patrick Karim’s Yearly Silver Log Scale Chart suggests we’re still years away from true overextension.
If history repeats, silver may have a long runway ahead before reaching the “hot zone” — and triple-digit prices remain a realistic long-term target.
Source: Patrick Karim
Meme of the Week: Gold Groundhog Day? Another “All-Time High” Again…
Whether you feel like Bill Murray in a gold Groundhog Day of endless all-time highs might depend on whether you’re already aboard the gold train — or still lining up to buy your ticket.
While gold keeps replaying the same scene, silver may be setting up for its breakout moment…
Silver Near $50: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Entry
With silver hovering just below its all-time nominal USD high of US$49.50, many investors are waiting for a meaningful pullback before stepping in. But strong bull markets rarely make it easy.
It’s common to get stuck on the sidelines waiting for a dip that never comes. More often, a market like this builds a sideways base just below a key resistance level — frustrating latecomers while consolidating for the next leg higher.
Gold did the same from April to August before its latest breakout.
That’s why we suggest taking an initial position now and looking to average in on any dips, rather than waiting for the “perfect” entry that may never appear.
If you’d like help positioning for what comes next — whether you’re just starting out or adding to holdings — our team is here to help.