This Week:
- Weekly Price Overview – 17 December 2025
- The $50 Gold Coin That’s Worth Over $7,500? Why Face Value Is Misleading
- JPMorgan Flips the Script in Silver — From Biggest Short to Major Holder
- US Bullion Banks Quietly Cover Shorts
- Rate Cuts and “Not QE” QE: What the Fed’s Really Up To
- Meme of the Week:
- What Powell Said vs What Powell Meant
- Gold & Silver: The Canary in the QE Coal Mine
- Silver’s Turn to Shine?
- Global Liquidity Crunch: Yen Carry Trade Breaks
- Final Word
Weekly Price Overview – 17 December 2025
Silver stole the spotlight again this week, reaching fresh all-time highs in both USD and NZD terms. Gold followed with solid gains, holding above key support levels. The NZ dollar remained flat but continues to trend down over the long term — a persistent tailwind for local metal prices.
🟡 NZD gold rose $191.25 (+2.62%) to $7,480.44, breaking out above recent consolidation. Support remains around the 50-day moving average near $7,200. USD gold climbed $110.50 (+2.62%) to $4,322.20, staying above its uptrend line and testing overhead resistance near $4,400.
⚪ NZD silver surged $7.53 (+7.15%) to $112.88 — another new record, with momentum building after consolidating around $100. The trend remains strong, with the 50-day MA (near $92) as key support. USD silver jumped $4.35 (+7.15%) to $65.22, clearing $60 and pushing toward the $70 target.
💱 NZD/USD was unchanged at 0.5778, holding above its 50-day MA. Despite recent stability, the NZD remains in a long-term downtrend, continuing to support local precious metals pricing.
📈 Takeaway: Silver remains the standout performer, breaking into blue-sky territory. Gold is following through steadily, backed by macro tailwinds. Dips remain buying opportunities — especially for silver, which continues to lead.
The $50 Gold Coin That’s Worth Over $7,500? Why Face Value Is Misleading
Ever wondered why a 1oz gold coin with “$50” stamped on it costs thousands? In this week’s featured read, we unpack what “legal tender” really means when it comes to gold and silver coins — and why their face value often has little to do with their real-world worth. This one might surprise even seasoned stackers…
JPMorgan Flips the Script in Silver — From Biggest Short to Major Holder
According to multiple market reports, JPMorgan Chase — long viewed as the largest short seller in paper silver — has now completely exited that short position and gone net long on physical silver. Between June and October 2025, the bank reportedly covered its entire ~200 million ounce short and accumulated physical silver holdings of at least ~750 million ounces — the largest physical stockpile in the world. SilverTrade
Multiple outlets document this move:
- Reports note JPMorgan sold off its ~200 million ounce short and bought physical metal instead. SilverTrade
- Other coverage highlights the bank’s 750 million ounce long position and recent accumulation of another ~21 million ounces in six weeks. Mining Discovery
- Market commentary and discussion platforms reflect that this is seen by many as a historic repositioning in the silver market. X (formerly Twitter)
Why This Matters
For years, the narrative around JPMorgan in silver has been dominated by the idea that large shorts helped suppress prices. If true, its move to own physical metal flips that historic role on its head — and could have real implications for price discovery if physical stocks remain tight relative to demand.
US Bullion Banks Quietly Cover Shorts
The reported JPMorgan reversal is part of a broader trend — US banks are quietly exiting the battlefield.
According to Honza Černý:
“From July to November, US banks covered ~110 million ounces of silver shorts. Only ~35 million remains before they go net long.”
Ed Steer says US Bullion Banks now hold their lowest short position in history in silver. It seems something major is changing. Meanwhile, non-US banks are still deep in short positions, and as silver rises, they’re taking losses — building pressure in the system.
Mark on X adds:
“This could be the silver equivalent of the London Gold Pool collapse in the 1960s.”
- COMEX has lost 92 million oz of silver since 1 October.
- US banks now hold the lowest net short silver position in recorded history.
- That suppression mechanism? It’s looking broken.
Silver’s rally is now accelerating in a way that technical analysis can’t explain — and that’s the point (silver has jumped almost NZ$3 just this afternoon).As Ed Steer says:
“We’ve been in a managed market for 50 years. You can throw technical analysis out the window.”
Rate Cuts and “Not QE” QE: What the Fed’s Really Up To
This week’s other big story? The Fed cut rates… again. But while most of the media focus was on the official 25 bps drop, something much more significant quietly kicked off behind the scenes:
- The Fed just resumed Treasury purchases — to the tune of $40 billion/month.
- And instead of waiting until January as forecasted… they started Friday.
Call it what you want — but when the Fed cuts rates and restarts buying securities, that’s QE. Even if they dress it up as “maintaining ample reserves.”
Meme of the Week:
“Not QE is still QE” – fortune cookie wisdom from @duediligenceguy
What Powell Said vs What Powell Meant
Said:
“We’re only buying T-bills to maintain ample reserves.”
Meant:
“Repo markets are under stress. We’re injecting liquidity now – before it unravels over the holidays.”
Translation from Glenn Handley:
“When central banks move faster than markets expect, the situation is worse than anyone’s admitting.”
And this is exactly what happened:
- Wall Street expected buying to start in January
- The Fed quietly began this Friday
According to Glenn:
“Powell says purchases will “remain elevated” for the next few months. Translation: They know what’s coming. And it’s not pretty.”
Full post here
Gold & Silver: The Canary in the QE Coal Mine
Markets aren’t fooled.
Gold has surged 75% since the Fed started easing in September 2024 — compared to a more modest 25% gain during the hiking cycle of 2022–23, according to this ANZ chart.
To paraphrase Karl E. Krueger:
“Lowering interest rates and restarting QE at the highest asset prices in history is Not QE. QE is Not money printing. Inflation is Not a problem. The repo market is Not stressed. Everything is doubleplus good. Orwell would be proud.”
More of Karl’s razor-sharp commentary here:
“QE is back. Cost of living will soar.”
Silver’s Turn to Shine?
Gold’s not the only metal flashing warning lights.
Silver is known to outperform gold during QE periods, and the early moves are already underway.
According to Gold Investor Research:
“During the 2008 cycle, silver outpaced gold by 165% in the QE phase. The current move is just the warm-up.”
If history rhymes, we may be heading into a powerful phase for silver — one that combines monetary tailwinds with rising industrial demand.
Global Liquidity Crunch: Yen Carry Trade Breaks
There’s another big force adding fuel to the fire — and it’s coming from overseas.
As Graham Stephan explained this week, the Yen Carry Trade — where investors borrow yen at near-zero rates and invest in higher-yielding US assets — is starting to unwind.
“Japan is finally raising rates to save its currency. The gap is closing. The free money isn’t free anymore.”
– Graham Stephan
Here’s what’s happening:
- Investors are being forced to sell US Treasuries, stocks, and crypto to repay their yen loans.
- This creates a massive liquidity drain, just as the Fed is trying to ease financial conditions.
In other words:
The Fed is pouring in liquidity just as global forces are sucking it out.
QE is back — not because the Fed wants to restart it, but because the system is demanding it.
Final Word
From the Fed’s latest rate cut to JP Morgan flipping its silver position, one thing is becoming clear: This isn’t a normal market cycle.
We’re seeing historic shifts. From liquidity stress behind the scenes, global flows reversing, and bullion banks stepping away from short suppression. Meanwhile, silver’s breakout is accelerating, and gold is firming up fast.
The euphemisms may keep changing – “ample reserves,” “Not QE” – but the market knows what’s really happening. Precious metals are flashing warning signs.
Now’s the time to make sure your portfolio is ready.
Get in touch for a quote or with any questions.
Glenn's dedication to educating individuals on wealth protection through precious metals has helped over 2400 clients from New Zealand, Australia, USA and Europe to safeguard their financial futures. Passionate about financial independence and lifestyle freedom, Glenn’s mission is to empower others with the knowledge and tools to thrive in today’s volatile economic environment. When he's not advising on precious metals, Glenn enjoys spending time with his family and pursuing outdoor adventures.
Education: University of Auckland Bachelor of Science
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/glenn-thomas-0984a4310/
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