Behind Silver’s Surge: Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling, and Why It Matters

GSG Weekly Market Wrap – 16 July 2025

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Weekly Price Overview – 16 July 2025

Precious metals rose across the board, with silver breaking out (more in this week’s feature article) and the NZD easing slightly vs USD.

🟡 NZD gold gained $92 to $5,600.82 (+1.66%), rebounding above its 50-day MA and trend support. USD gold added $31.90 to $3,330.81 (+0.97%) as it holds the top of its sideways channel.

⚪ NZD silver surged $2.42 to $63.59 (+3.96%), breaking to a new all-time closing high before a mild pullback to retest support at $62. USD silver climbed $1.19 to $37.82 (+3.24%), consolidating above $37.50 with $50 still in sight.

💱 NZD/USD slipped 41 bps to 0.5947 (-0.68%), easing after hitting resistance on its downtrend line. Long-term technicals remain bullish for the Kiwi.

📈 Both metals maintain strong medium-term uptrends. Dips toward support levels remain prime accumulation opportunities as silver leads and gold holds firm.

Silver Breakout 2025: NZD Hits All-Time High, USD Closes on $50

USD silver hit a 14-year high, and NZD silver entered uncharted territory above $64. Is this the start of a multi-year bull run?

In this week’s feature we unpack:
✔ The breakout technicals (and what they’re projecting next)
✔ Why billionaire investors like David Bateman are buying
✔ The long-term chart pointing toward USD $100 silver

Full details here:

Retail Selling Silver as ETFs and Asia Step In – A Classic Contrarian Signal?

Here’s the latest from the Silver Institute: western physical silver demand is falling—but ETF inflows, plus Chinese and Indian buying, are already outpacing all of 2024.
See: Silver investment ramps up in 2025 as ETF inflows surge (Kitco)

Silver Institute reports that in the USA: 

“…selling back by retail investors remains high,” the analysts said. “This dynamic, along with weak retail purchases, has weighed heavily on new bar and coin sales as some US investors have been encouraged by multi-year high prices to book profits. Furthermore, the absence of a crisis in the US (like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023) has reduced safe-haven purchases.”

“Overall, US retail demand for silver is estimated to have fallen by at least 30% so far this year,”” 

This fits with what we reported in early June:

Retail Sells Into Breakout — Why That Might Be Bullish
Despite silver’s breakout, premiums on 500-coin mint boxes have been falling. That suggests the public isn’t buying—if anything, they’re likely selling into strength.

More retail supply means wholesalers drop premiums. As with gold earlier this year, retail selling into rallies often signals a contrarian setup.

📖 Read our full take on retail silver selling

So with silver prices climbing, are we watching the same setup play out as with gold in January?

📖 Central banks hoarding gold while retail sells

Silver’s “Illusion of Liquidity”: Mini-Squeezes May Be the Trigger

Back in March, we reported on a possible short squeeze developing in silver as U.S. tariff threats on Mexican silver imports raised fears of physical scarcity:
📖 Silver Short Squeeze: LBMA, COMEX, SLV & PSLV Explained

Although tariffs never materialized, the episode drained London inventories as metal shifted to the U.S. to preempt trade disruptions. Crucially, those London stockpiles haven’t been replenished.

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali flagged this back in June:

“Last time #silver broke $35/oz, it only took roughly 6 weeks to trade $50/oz.

Bullion exemptions eased fears of ‘the #silversqueeze you can buy into’, because New York inventories can theoretically backstop scarce London inventories. However, London is still tight, and it is increasingly apparent that LBMA vaults will not replete without some form of a squeeze on physical.

The mechanism to do so may appear as a series of rolling mini-squeezes.”
(Source: LinkedIn)

Since then, Ghali has doubled down:

“ETF demand is draining the free float at an increasingly rapid rate… Silver markets may not manage to rebalance without some form of a #silversqueeze.”
(Source: LinkedIn)

And most recently:

“Silver’s story is unique… London inventories are scarce, tracking below 155M oz. New York is bloated, but silver’s illusion of liquidity remains. We may not rebalance without a squeeze.”
(Source: LinkedIn)

Supporting this view, Tavi Costa highlights silver lease rates surging back towards the tariff fear highs:

“Silver lease rates are surging, just like platinum did before its major breakout… If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…”
(Source: LinkedIn)

📈 Chart of the Week: Silver’s 1-month lease rates are spiking again—often a sign of tightening physical supply.

Key Takeaway: Retail Selling, Smart Money Loading Up

While retail investors in the West have been lightening up—selling into strength and helping push premiums lower—ETF flows tell a different story. Institutional and overseas buyers are stepping in aggressively, draining the available supply.

This split isn’t unusual early in bull runs. As we noted in June, retail capitulation often precedes the biggest moves. If silver continues to surge, and London vaults remain tight, the stage could be set for one of Ghali’s “rolling mini-squeezes” to send prices parabolic.

Meme of the Week – Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining

When even the clouds are shouting about precious metals… maybe it’s a sign.

Source: Lobo Tigre 

With silver breaking out and gold holding strong, there might be more “silver linings” ahead for those positioned early. Get in touch if you’re not yet:

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Glenn Thomas

Author at Gold Survival Guide

Glenn Thomas is the co-founder of Gold Survival Guide, which he launched in 2009 after years of active involvement as an investor in the precious metals markets. With over 20 years of experience in the sector, Glenn has become a trusted authority on gold and silver investing. Since 2011, he has written and published a weekly gold and silver newsletter, with over 650 editions and counting. Additionally, he is also the author of more than 300 blog posts covering the why, what, when and how of buying gold and silver. As a result he is the creator of new Zealand's most comprehensive repository of precious metals investment information.

Glenn's dedication to educating individuals on wealth protection through precious metals has helped over 2400 clients from New Zealand, Australia, USA and Europe to safeguard their financial futures. Passionate about financial independence and lifestyle freedom, Glenn’s mission is to empower others with the knowledge and tools to thrive in today’s volatile economic environment. When he's not advising on precious metals, Glenn enjoys spending time with his family and pursuing outdoor adventures.

Education: University of Auckland Bachelor of Science
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/glenn-thomas-0984a4310/

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