The Coming Global Trade Reset?

Prices and Charts

Just a Brief Gold Pullback

Gold in New Zealand Dollars was up $15 from last week to $5148. Although it did briefly dip down to touch the Green uptrend line, which was the first buy zone we had said to watch for. However today it is bouncing back up off that line. $5000 is still a buying area to watch for. Then below that is the 50-day moving average and blue uptrend line currently just above $4800.

In USD terms, gold was up $32 to $2933. It didn’t spend long below $2900 when it dipped. $2800 and $2700 remain key buy zones. But in this market, the dips have not been very deep or long-lasting. So don’t count on those.

Silver Close to a Breakout?

Silver in NZ dollars jumped $1.50 or 2.7% from last week to $57.89. It dipped for just a couple of days down to the green uptrend line but has jumped back up again today. It looks like it is building for a breakout above the $58 overhead resistance line. From there it’s not too far to the all time high above $60.

In USD silver rose $1.11 to $32.98. $33 is the mark to watch for here. As once it breaks that, then $35 is the next target.

NZ Dollar Bouncing Back – Up to 0.57

NZ Dollar up 45 basis points from last week to 0.5697. Up from the double bottom at 0.5500. It could be heading to test the overhead resistance line at 0.5800 next.

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below

Gold’s True Value: Is It Higher Than You Think?

Gold has hit all-time highs—but is it truly at its peak? Many people are wondering if now is the time to sell or if there’s still room for massive gains.

In this week’s featured article, we break down the key valuation models that help determine gold’s fair value. From historical gold backing of the US dollar to inflation-adjusted highs, we uncover whether gold remains undervalued—and by how much.

Could gold still have major upside ahead? The numbers might surprise you.

Read now to find out where gold’s price could be headed next.

How Do You Value Gold? What Price Could Gold Reach? 2025 Predictions?

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Chart: Gold Vs Various Macro and Market Figures

After writing this week’s feature article we just spotted this post on X. A visual way of showing that gold has a lot of catching up to do vs debt, currency supply, and the stock market:

Gold and other assets since 1990.

Gold is catching up with the monetary base as we speak. Only one way to go and it’s up

Source

Gold Record Highs and… Pessimism?

We’ve recently hit record highs in gold however we are long way from euphoria:

Great insight by @kevinmuir about the gold-pessimism:

“…even though gold is strong, long-term implied volatility remains subdued, and most surprisingly — there is no reach for upside bend. The market is still not scared of gold rallying hard. Pessimism abounds.”

Source.

Another reason why gold can continue to go much higher yet.

The Coming Global Trade Reset?

Ronni Stoeferle shared what he believes will be a hugely important report this week from someone who will now be one of Trump’s key advisors. We’d recommend you check out Ronni’s full thread over on X.

But here is our summary of his summary:

Ronnie Stoeferle on Stephen Miran’s Trade Policy Blueprint

A major shift in U.S. trade and monetary policy could be coming. Stephen Miran, newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has outlined what could become the economic roadmap for a second Trump administration.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs & Dollar Policy Shift – Miran proposes tariffs not just as protectionism, but as a tool to fund tax cuts and pressure allies into financial commitments. A weaker dollar could boost U.S. manufacturing.
• The “Mar-a-Lago Accord” – A potential new Plaza Accord, where nations inside the U.S. security umbrella must hold Treasuries, or face tariffs.
• Gold & Bitcoin Win – If the U.S. weaponizes the dollar, the world will seek alternative reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin, accelerating de-dollarization.
• A New Global Order – Miran sees trade and security as linked, meaning allies get privileged trade terms, while adversaries (China, BRICS) face tariffs and capital restrictions.
• Tariffs & Inflation – Miran dismisses inflation fears, citing the 2018-19 tariffs, where currency devaluation offset price hikes.

🚨 The Bottom Line:

This could be the biggest shakeup in global finance since Bretton Woods, with tariffs, devaluation, and a realignment of global trade. If this plays out, expect market volatility, a weaker dollar, and soaring gold & Bitcoin prices.

Here is the original full report from November.

@LukeGromen summed it up nicely in a reply to Ronni:

The interesting point to note is that the 1980’s peak would now be equal to roughly US$10,000. The below chart care of @ValueSeeker_ is also adjusted for money supply. But instead of being in an index like Tavi’s, it is in adjusted dollar terms:

I think they are serious.”

Note: For more on the massive gold imports into the USA, be sure to check out our article from last week on the current two tiered gold market and why it matters for the average Joe or Joanne.

“Zero Coupon Perpetual UST Bonds” or UST Physical Gold Bonds?

Stephen Miran outlined how nations inside the U.S. security umbrella must hold Treasuries, or face tariffs. So using tariffs to pressure allies into financial commitments looks to be what this next post is also discussing.

So Jim @biancoresearch said in a recent interview that the Trump administration is seriously considering “forcing” U.S. allies to exchange their existing UST bonds with “zero coupon perpetual UST bonds”, in “payment” for U.S. military protection rendered for the last 50 years.

So maybe this is where @judyshel ‘s UST physical #Gold Bonds come in. This way at least U.S. allies won’t be killed by inflation holding “zero coupon perpetual UST bonds” if they are physical #Gold backed.

Jim @biancoresearch ‘s interview. 👇

Source

But if US “allies” are forced to buy US treasuries, and if these weren’t gold-backed bonds, then it would make sense that these nations will likely buy gold anyway to hedge against this guaranteed loss of value in the US treasuries.

With New Zealand being one of the Five Eyes it’s likely we’ll be forced into doing this too. Maybe our central bank will finally start to buy some gold!?

NZ Inflation Picking Up But RBNZ Still to Cut Rates

We have our doubts that they ever will. But it’s likely by the time you read this the RBNZ will have cut interest rates by 50 basis points. ASB notes that compared to many other countries…

“NZ looks to remain out on a limb, with a 50bp OCR widely expected today from the RBNZ. The focus of today’s RBNZ OCR decision will be on the forward guidance and published rate track. We expect a total of 100bps of RBNZ cuts over 2025 but note that the economic and policy outlook is fluid with both upside and downside risks.”

With NZ Consumer prices likely jumping 1.1% in January ASB is starting to change tack and thinks inflation might be picking up:

“The figures suggest some upside to our CPI forecast view (we have annual CPI inflation hitting about 2.6% in mid-2025) and it is likely to significantly complicate the communication challenges facing the RBNZ.”

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