Trump’s Tariffs and Precious Metals: Exemptions, Risks, and What Comes Next

Stock markets have slumped. Volatility is back. So how will tariffs affect gold and silver?.

Trump has launched a wide-reaching trade crackdown, with a minimum 10% tariff on imports from nearly every country.

Tucked away in the official White House fact sheet was a small but critical detail—“bullion” is exempt. 

That’s good news on the surface. But markets had already reacted before the exemption was clear. Bullion demand spiked in New York. Now that panic has cooled, we’re seeing that pressure ease—and silver has taken a hit.

In this article we’ll explore what this means for gold and silver—both now and in the long run.

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

What Are Trump’s Latest Tariffs All About?

Trump has declared a national emergency and launched a sweeping global tariff regime. A 10% base tariff now applies to almost all imports, even from countries with no trade surplus with the U.S. With much steeper tariffs on some countries.

The move has already sparked major market volatility. Stocks are falling as investors rethink trade routes, supply chains, and rising costs.

These tariffs are meant to protect U.S. industries, but they’ll likely also raise prices—and may trigger fresh trade retaliation around the world.

China has already hit back with new tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump has threatened to raise them again, fueling a fast-growing trade standoff.

This policy shift is already shaking global markets—including gold and silver.

Gold and Silver Bullion Are Exempt—Why That Matters

Out of all the tariff exemptions, one stood out for anyone interested in precious metals: “bullion.”

That one word in the White House release confirmed that gold and silver bullion are exempt. Simone Knobloch of major refiner Valcambi later explained why in more detail.

👉 Full exemption list – Business Today

So prices to import gold and silver into the USA will not change.

But even though tariffs were never guaranteed to target precious metals, the uncertainty alone was enough to spark a short-term buying surge—especially in the U.S.

Short-Term Effects: Relief in New York, Pressure Easing in London

Bullion demand in New York surged in recent weeks, as investors tried to front-run any potential price rise or supply disruption. Now that bullion is officially off the tariff list, that urgency has eased.

We may be seeing signs of that demand cooling back down. 

Meanwhile, over in London, the recent tightness in silver availability may also start to ease. As we noted in our silver short squeeze analysis, pressure had been building between LBMA (London) and COMEX (New York) as traders hunted for arbitrage. With tariffs off the table, the urgency to shift metal between regions may lessen—at least for now.

👉 Read: Silver Short Squeeze – Why It Happened and What’s Next

But as we highlighted in Gold & Basel III: The Price Surge Has Started, there are other factors at play that could be driving the demand for non-paper gold and by extension silver.

Silver Sells Off, Gold Holds Steady: A Familiar Pattern

With the fears of tariffs on precious metals fading, some of the speculative demand that had been building—especially in silver—has started to unwind.

Silver prices have dropped, while gold has held firmer.

But this divergence isn’t unusual. In fact, it’s exactly what we’ve seen in prior market disruptions. See the 2008 financial crisis or the Covid panic of 2020.

Silver tends to be more volatile. It plays a dual role—part monetary metal, part industrial input—so it gets pulled in different directions during times of uncertainty. When tensions rise, silver often spikes faster. But when the pressure eases, it also corrects more sharply.

Gold, on the other hand, is still behaving like it should: a store of value and a safe haven. It’s not rallying wildly, but it’s not dropping as much as all other assets. That stability is part of its appeal.

And once gold starts to run, silver often catches up quickly—and aggressively. It may just take some further patience before this happens.

Long-Term Big Picture Impact: Why Tariffs Still Matter for Gold and Silver

Gold and silver may have escaped the tariffs directly—but they could still be affected in other ways. 

So let’s take a big picture view on tariffs.

Ray Dalio: Tariffs Are Just the Tip of the Iceberg

Ray Dalio warns that focusing only on tariffs ignores deeper risks now unfolding in the global economy.

In his first post, “The Effects of Tariffs and How the Economic Machine Works”, Dalio explains that tariffs aren’t just taxes. They’re complex tools that create stagflationary effects and disrupt both trade and capital flows

He lists several direct effects:

• Tariffs raise costs for producers and consumers
  
• They reduce global production efficiency
  
• They weaken exporters while sheltering domestic firms
  
• They distort capital flows and trade balances
  
• They may act as political tools in economic wars
  

He warns that these ripple effects may ease or worsen the damage—but usually lead to more economic turmoil.

Dalio says today’s global debt and rising tensions could trigger sudden, unexpected shifts in the world economy.

In his second post, “Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking That What’s Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs”, Dalio steps back to show the bigger picture.

He argues we are witnessing a breakdown in:

1. The global economic and monetary order
   
2. Political cohesion within major countries
   
3. The balance of global power
   

In other words, tariffs are just a symptom of a much deeper system reset already underway.

So we should focus on the major machinations, not just the headlines. Because what Dalio outlines—rising inflation, political fragmentation, currency stress—have historically driven demand for hard assets like gold.

Clive Thompson: A Chain Reaction That Ends in Gold Soaring

Clive Thompson, a retired wealth manager in Geneva, outlines what could happen next as these tariffs play out.

He lists a 28-step sequence that includes stock market weakness, lower global consumption, rising inflation, declining bond prices, and eventually, a surge in gold and silver prices.

 👉 Read Clive Thompson’s full 28-point forecast on LinkedIn

He believes that as central banks print more currency and governments take on more debt, institutional investors will increasingly recognise gold as a powerful portfolio stabiliser.

His conclusion? Stocks may recover—but gold will soar.

Investor Takeaway: Gold Still a Hedge, Silver Still the Wildcard

Gold continues to do what it always has—protect value in turbulent times. As central banks keep buying—and inflation and currency risks grow—gold remains a top choice for wealth protection.

Silver is more volatile, but also has greater upside. Silver may follow stock markets lower initially. But history shows that silver can bounce back faster.

If this truly is the start of a longer-term shift in trade, inflation, and monetary policy—then owning physical metals now may prove wise later.

Should You Buy Gold Now? Key Factors to Consider

Instead of trying to time gold perfectly, it’s better to look at the bigger forces driving demand from investors and central banks.

As Redward Associates put it:

“It’s important to keep in mind factors that drive gold holdings. Factors driving the decisions of investors and the official sector to hold gold have, if anything, intensified.”

Here’s a snapshot of the key drivers at play:

👉 Source: Redward Associates Substack

Final Thoughts: Prepare Before the Panic

History shows that those who prepare protect their wealth—while those who react often lose ground.

The tariffs may not have hit bullion directly—but they’ve hit a nerve in the global system.

Markets are shifting. Stagflation might be on the horizon. Trust in financial systems continues to erode.

Thinking about your next move in gold or silver? We’re here to help. Stay informed with our free weekly precious metals update.

At Gold Survival Guide, our mission is to help you take action early—not emotionally. Protect your wealth—and your freedom—with real assets that stand the test of time. Shop the range of gold and silver products here.

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