Are We Just Seeing A Pause In Longer Trends?


Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

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Gold Continues Its Bounce Back

Gold in New Zealand Dollars has continued its move higher after bottoming out at $2700. Up $28 or around 1% from 7 days ago. We are due a pullback, however NZD gold could yet run to $2950 before this happens. However we do think this is most likely the start of the next up wave in gold. More on that in this week’s feature article. So any pullback will likely be a good buying opportunity. NZ Dollar Gold Chart

NZD Silver Up 2% After a Brief Pullback

Silver in NZ dollars is up 62 cents from last week. It did undergo a brief pullback but has now made a higher high. So it could run a bit higher still. But then we’d expect a decent pullback, maybe around 50% of the run up since bottoming below $30? Like gold we’d consider any pullback to be a buying opportunity. Because we think the bottom is in for silver too. NZ Dollar Silver Chart

NZ Dollar up 1%

The NZ dollar was up 62 basis points or exactly 1% from a week ago. It’s likely the bottom is in for the NZD as well. Maybe just a slow but steady rise from here versus the USD? But we’d expect a higher rise in gold and silver prices, just like we’ve seen this week. NZ Dollar Chart

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below

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Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold in New Zealand?

This is the question on not just first time buyers’ minds, but also for people adding to their stash. So in this week’s feature article we look at a number of indicators that help with answering this question. That includes:
  • What the recent correction means
  • Looking at longer term trends
  • Other Indicators including property and stock Markets
  • Seasonality
  • Futures Market Commitment of Traders Positions
  • Elliot Wave analysis

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold in New Zealand?

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Are We Just Seeing A Pause In Longer Trends?

Share markets including ours here in NZ, have bounced nicely over the past couple of months. Wholesale and some mortgage Interest rates have also come down. Market expectations are now for rates to be cut next year. The latest RBNZ inflation expectation survey has also dipped a touch. With inflation expectations falling for the first time in two years.
“The closely followed quarterly survey of expectations of top business leaders and analysts has average one-year inflation expectations easing marginally to 4.86 percent from 4.88 percent in the previous quarter, the highest since late 1990.” Read more
So not a big move but still a change. We’ve also been reading a lot about how a recession in the US economy doesn’t look likely. However as the Market Ear notes below, the spread between the US 2 year and 10 year treasury bonds is saying otherwise…

No recession they say…

…but the 2/10 year spread seems to think otherwise. New low and the gap vs SPX getting very wide. US 2 to  10 year chart Refinitiv
For more on the yield curve and the spread in bonds see: The Yield Curve Recession Predictor 2022: Impact on Gold? So all these moves would point to things improving. Well at least as long as they continue to carry on. However we wonder if they are all just short term aberrations in longer term trends? What if we are in the early stages of a cyclical bear market for stocks? And the rise of the past couple of months is simply a pause in this down trend? Likewise, what if the tick down in interest rates is also just a pause in a longer term uptrend in rates? What if the reduction in inflation expectations is simply a result of so much press about how inflation is only short term and will be back to the normal 2-3% in a couple of years? But what if we are already in a multi year, or even decade long, period of high inflation? If we are in fact at the start of longer term trends then we would be looking at something similar to the 1970’s stagflation. Basically a recession with high inflation. But unfortunately with the difference that most people’s debt levels are much higher than they were in the 70’s. We’d guess that most people are horribly unprepared for an environment like this. An environment where gold and silver shine. So make sure you are not like most people. Get in touch for a quote today:
  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

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This Weeks Articles:

Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A Beginners Guide + What it Says About When to Buy in 2022

Wed, 3 Aug 2022 10:37 AM NZST
Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report_ A Beginners GuideLearn all about the gold and silver commitment of traders (COT) report and how understanding it can help determine when to buy gold and silver. This post covers: What is the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report? The Current Positions in the Commitment of Traders Report for Gold and for Silver What is a “Short Squeeze”? What […] The post Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A Beginners Guide + What it Says About When to Buy in 2022 appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

Is This Corrective Wave Down in NZD Gold About to End?

Wed, 20 Jul 2022 4:10 PM NZST
Corrective_Wave_DownPrices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2643 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $928 NZD Gold Pushed Lower by Stronger Kiwi Dollar Gold in New Zealand dollars was down $65 from a week ago. That is a […] The post Is This Corrective Wave Down in NZD Gold About to End? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

Where Are We in the Psychology of the Silver Market Cycle in 2022?

Tue, 19 Jul 2022 4:27 PM NZST
Where Are We in the Psychology of the Silver Market Cycle? This article looks at the phases of investor psychology in market cycles. Then compares these phases to the silver market cycle over the past 14 years or so, to see where the silver market is currently. Therefore helping to indicate where silver is going […] The post Where Are We in the Psychology of the Silver Market Cycle in 2022? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

Why is Gold More Valuable Than “Worthless Paper”?

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 11:30 AM NZST
Whether you’re an old hand at the matters of gold, silver and what is money, or a real newbie, you’ll probably have something in common with a frustrated reader.  He admitted that all the conflicting information about how the world monetary system works was “doing [his] head in!”.  Here is his email and below it […] The post Why is Gold More Valuable Than “Worthless Paper”? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.
  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide Today’s Prices to Buy
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1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin (2020) Gold Maple $3,067.20 (in stock)
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$21,455.94 (Pre-order) Including shipping/insurance 6/7 weeks delivery
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  • Prices are excluding delivery
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We look forward to hearing from you soon. Have a golden week! David (and Glenn) Ph: 0800 888 465 From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898 email:
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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
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