Gold on the Brink of a Structural Reset - Are Markets Ready?

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

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Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity	$4866
Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity	$1642

NZD Gold Dips From All Time High Near $5200

Gold in New Zealand dollars was up $94 from a week ago. But at $5133 today, it is down a little from yesterday’s all time high just below $5200. Gold is now overbought on the RSI indicator. However as we’ve seen on a couple of occasions last year it can stay overbought for some weeks. But we will see a pullback at some point, maybe back to retest the breakout from the green uptrend line? After that the next buy zone would be at the 50 day moving average and blue uptrend line. Currently close to $4800.

While in USD gold was up $54 from 7 days ago. But dipping today to $2901. Buy zones would be any dips down to $2800 and $2700.

NZD Silver Down 1%

Silver in NZ Dollars was down 54 cents or 1% from last week to $56.39. It is pulling back towards the green downtrend line. Watch out for a bounce from near there or around $56. Because once it breaks $58 the next stop is the all time high above $60.

In US dollars silver was down 29 cents to $31.87. So we’re still watching for it to break $33, then the next target will be $35.

Kiwi Dollar Still Hovering Around 0.5650

The Kiwi dollar has barely changed from last week. Up just 2 basis points to 0.5652. Having risen from 0.5500 it is currently just hovering around 0.5650.

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

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London’s Gold Drain & the Central Bank Buying Frenzy—What’s Going On?

A major shift is happening in the gold market, but most investors don’t see it yet. While retail investors are selling, central banks and institutions are silently stockpiling gold at record levels. At the same time, gold is flowing out of London at an unprecedented rate.

What does this tell us about the future of the monetary system? Could we be on the verge of a major revaluation? And why are some of the biggest players in the world scrambling for physical gold while the public lets theirs go?

This week’s article uncovers the hidden forces at work in the gold market—and why those who aren’t paying attention may regret it later.

The Two-Tiered Gold Market: Why Central Banks Are Hoarding Gold While Retail Investors Sell Theirs

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Ronni Stoerferle: Gold on the Brink of a Structural Reset

We’ve kept today’s newsletter very brief as there is a lot of information in our featured article above. We think this is one of the most important pieces we’ve written in a while. Why?

Because it summarises the key happenings in the precious metals markets right now. And there is a lot going on behind the scenes. So make sure you do check that out.

But here is another great summary from Ronni Stoerferle on what is going on right now. He discusses some of the points we do plus a couple extra key ones. Such as the top 10 Chinese insurance companies being able to buy and offer gold-backed products:

𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 – 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲?

With gold hitting new alltime-highs, we have received lots of questions about the current rally. Here are some of the reasons for the #goldbull:

🔹 As we wrote in IGWT 2024: This bull market has been fueled by emerging markets central banks and institutional demand. Investment demand from non-Western institutions has surged—China, India, and the Middle East are leading the charge, aggressively accumulating physical gold.

Now, Western financial investors are waking up—𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐞’𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 “𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝-𝐅𝐎𝐌𝐎”.

𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐩𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠:

🔹 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐈𝐬 𝐃𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 – 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐡𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬
One-month gold leasing rates in London (GOFO) have spiked to 3.5%, after years near zero. This reflects a fundamental shift: available gold for lending is drying up. Basel III takes full effect in the U.S. on July 1. These regulations will alter how banks treat gold as a reserve asset, reducing the paper leverage that has historically suppressed prices. If implemented, expect gold prices to accelerate sharply.

🔹 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠—𝐀 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞?
Gold producers are covering shorts at record highs—historically, producers hedge near peaks, not unwind at new highs. Funds and bullion banks are reducing shorts, an unusual move suggesting they expect much higher prices. When the market stops shorting an asset despite new highs, it signals tight supply and a revaluation in progress.

🔹 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 – 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐆𝐨𝐭 𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫
China has launched a pilot program allowing its top 10 insurance companies to buy and offer gold-backed products—unlocking up to $27.4 billion in new institutional demand. This is a game-changer: gold could become a core asset in Chinese life insurance and annuity products, mirroring how equity-linked insurance functions in the West.

📊 𝐀𝐬 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐖𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬, 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞—𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞-𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫. 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬, 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐦, 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐮𝐩.
Source.

Is the West Starting to Wake Up?

Tavi Costa also highlights how the west is starting to wake up. Although from what we are seeing this is still only at the institutional level, not so much retail yet. We say this because GLD is generally bought by institutions not so much by the public.

What sets this gold rally apart from previous ones is the rare convergence of demand from both Eastern and Western economies—an uncommon occurrence in modern financial history.

Notably, the GLD ETF is seeing significant asset growth, now just 3% below its all-time high.

While gold has seen a strong near-term move, I believe the long-term investment case for the metal remains as compelling as ever.

As I recently emphasized:

The world is experiencing a real-time history lesson on the significance of gold.

Source.

Gold Price Needed to Back Money Supply: US$18,000

With gold prices hitting all time highs again this week in just about every major currency, many people will be thinking how much higher can it go?

Well, in order to repeat what has happened in the past, and according to Incrementum AG, it will need to go much higher yet.

“Gold revaluation in progress?

Below, see the gold price needed to back each country’s monetary aggregates.”

Source.

Even for the smallest and most liquid measure of the money supply, the average looks to be somewhere around US$18,000. That is a long way from the current price of around $2900.

Combine that with what we outline in this week’s feature article and it makes a compelling reason to add to your stocks or gold and silver.

Please get in contact for a gold or silver quote, or if you have any questions: