LATE UPDATE: Spot prices have dropped a little
So Gold Kiwi’s are now $1964
Silver Ferns are now $1300 for 2 tubes of 20
|Spot Price Today / oz||Weekly Change ($)||Weekly Change (%)|
|NZD Gold||$1902.59||+ $5.84||+ 0.30%|
|USD Gold||$1358.45||+ $20.10||+ 1.50%|
|NZD Silver||$28.60||– $0.22||– 0.76%|
|USD Silver||$20.42||+ $0.09||+ 0.44%|
|NZD/USD||0.7140||+ 0.0084||+ 1.19%|
|Looking to sell your gold and silver?|
|Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity||$1826|
|Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity||$877|
Continuing to surprise. That is perhaps the best summary of gold and silver’s performance lately.
Today gold in NZ Dollars is back up above $1900. It has spent over 1 month between this level and the 50 day moving average or around $1850.
We’re starting to get the feeling that it might not be too long before it finally breaches this mark now.
Gold has risen even in the face of a strengthening NZ dollar over the past week. The Kiwi remains in an uptrend and is negating somewhat the rises in gold and silver in US dollar terms.
Silver is holding up much better than many would have expected after the already large surge higher. The chart below clearly shows it holding above the uptrend line. As one reader mentioned last week after this consolidation it is onwards and upwards from here.
We’d be hard pressed to argue with him too much, even in the face of a number of arguments as to why silver should pull back from here after a strong run higher.
Chief among these arguments is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report “open interest” level which is at a record high still.
Put simply this means that there are record numbers of traders betting on silver. Historically this has often meant at extremes they end up being wrong. As this is often trend following money getting in late to the game.
However we read a good alternative view to this from Alistair Macleod this weekend.
So we could be seeing institutional players taking longer term positions in gold and silver which they have to do via the regulated futures markets. They are unable to just buy physical bars of silver or gold. Thankfully for us little guys that situation does not exist and we are free to buy whatever amounts of actual physical metal we like.
Here’s another reason why we think gold and silver could still head higher yet before a more significant correction. It is in line with something we read in the latest newsletter from our favourite investment newsletter writer Chris Weber. Discussing the performance of precious metals mining shares this year:
Mr Weber often uses the sentiment of his readers to gauge where the markets are at. In this case the fact that people are keen to bank any profits so far made this year indicates that precious metals could well head higher still.
Also in the same newsletter he mentions many of his readers have written to say they have been waiting for a correction in gold and silver since the start of the year to get in, but simply haven’t seen one.
Our anecdotal evidence also backs this up.
Over the past 2 weeks or so we have seen a significant drop off in buying. We have received very few quote requests and not many purchases have been made.
To us this indicates that people are expecting a decent sized pullback in gold and silver. Giving them a lower price to get in.
So the odds instead favour the opposite happening. We might instead see a further move higher.
As we’ve been saying a correction will come eventually.
It just maybe from much higher levels than we are at currently.
We often get the question: should I buy silver or gold? Our personal opinion is that it’s wise to have some of both. How much of each depends on your individual situation but also how each metal is currently performing.
One angle as to why silver and in particular silver coins are worth having, is that in an extreme situation silver coins are of a small enough value to enable them to be used in exchange for the necessities of life such as food.
Even Jim Rickards commented on this function of silver this week:
Rickards wrote a full article on silver which we haven’t seen him cover before and makes a number of good points about the current market.
We’d have trouble disagreeing with too many of them. In particular that silver is holding up well currently in the face of many headwinds that would be expected to adversely affect it.
So we’ve posted the full article on the website and suggest you check that out. It also features some interesting history on coinage. We learned a few things there too:
—– OFFER FROM OUR SISTER COMPANY: Emergency Food NZ —–
Our bureaucrats are good at fiddling with the numbers too. Take this from an ASB release commenting on changes to what constitutes “actively searching for work” in terms of the NZ unemployment numbers:
“Next Wednesday 3 August (10.45am NZT), the Q2 labour market statistics are released. This is the first full release under the new definitions for what constitutes actively searching for work. Under the changes, the Q1 unemployment rate was revised down to 5.2% from 5.7%.”
So the unemployment rate will be reported as having fallen 0.5% but really they have simply tightened up the definition of what constitutes someone actually looking for a job. So these people just disappear from the numbers. They are no longer unemployed since they don’t meet the new definition of “actively searching for work”.
We wrote about this way back in 2009 actually.
Why the 6% unemployment rate is a fallacy
The NZ Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut the overnight cash rate (OCR) this month. The Australian Reserve bank already did this week.
Here’s perhaps the simplest explanation as to why cutting interest rates simply does no good. Actually why it does more harm than good:
However the Central Bank cutting the OCR may not necessarily translate into much lower mortgage rates.
We’ve commented a number of times that rising offshore borrowing costs for NZ banks could actually push up rates here. Or at least stop them falling as much as expected.
This ANZ report (check out pages 7-12) outlines how offshore funding costs are already on the rise and there is potential for them to move even higher.
Rising interest rates remain the biggest risk. While the trend remains down this won’t last forever and when they reverse things could get interesting.
Speaking of the ANZ, we received a couple of replies to our question as why you thought the head of NZ’s largest bank was sounding the warning on the NZ housing market.
Here’s an even harsher view of Mr Hisco, reminding us that he has changed his tune significantly in just one year:
Thanks for sharing your thoughts folks. Drop us an email if you’ve got any comments to share on today’s items.
If you’d like to follow Jim Rickards advice and grab some silver coins to stash away just in case, we have a couple of options.
There are still around 3000 silver fern coins available at lower than normal pricing of spot + 15%. Refer to the start of this email
Or Royal Canadian Mint 1oz silver maples. There is free shipping on boxes of 500 x 1oz Canadian 9999 purity Silver Maples delivered to your door via UPS, fully insured until you sign for them.Price today is $16,550.
Delivery in approx 7-10 business days.
Lastly, don’t forget to check out all the articles posted on the site this week linked below.
** Urgent Message for All Car Owners **A compact, revolutionary tool can save your life.
We believe everyone who drives or rides in a vehicle must carry this tool.
For less than the price of 2 movie tickets you can get 2 of these.
One for each car in your family or give one to someone you care about.
Wed, 3 Aug 2016 8:28 PM NZST
Stewart Thomson sounds pretty bullish on gold but for contrarian reasons to many others. He is warning that the risk ahead might not be that of systemic collapse but rather that of stagflation. That is when prices rise but the economy remains sluggish. Because of this he also has some thoughts on silver worth contemplating… […]
Wed, 3 Aug 2016 2:55 PM NZST
Here’s something on gold especially if you like to consume information visually rather than through too many words… No metal can claim a legacy comparable to gold. Gold has been used to show affectionate love, but it has also represented power, status, and riches for the greatest kings of antiquity. Gold’s history is truly legendary, […]
Wed, 3 Aug 2016 2:02 PM NZST
We’re not totally sure that a stock market collapse is right around the corner, but this article certainly makes some good points about how overvalued most markets are in comparison to precious metals. There are some big money players that have not so quietly moved to the sidelines in recent months, so that should give […]
Wed, 3 Aug 2016 1:00 PM NZST
We usually stay pretty “apolitical” here at Gold Survival Guide. But this article from Doug Casey we find hard to disagree with too much of it. We like the motto that “voting just encourages the b***tards”. So regardless of whether you class yourself as a follower of the “left” or the “right” prepare to have […]
Wed, 3 Aug 2016 12:38 PM NZST
A common question: silver or gold? Our answer is usually an “and” rather than an “or”. You’ve likely heard Jim Rickards view that gold will reach US$10,000 or more eventually in this cycle. But we haven’t often heard him discussing “poor mans gold” very often. He recently said: “I rarely discuss silver. Some assume I dislike […]
Thu, 28 Jul 2016 8:30 PM NZST
This Week: Double-Digit Losses in Silver by the End of 2016? World’s Largest Derivative Holder Profits Plunge – Will they be Downgraded and Trigger a Derivative Collapse? What Does it Mean When the Head of NZ’s Largest Bank is Warning of Housing Collapse? Danish Banker Also Warns on Housing A Key Driver of the Rise […]
|As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.|
|7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide
Today’s Prices to Buy
|Can’t Get Enough of Gold Survival Guide?
If once a week isn’t enough sign up to get daily price alerts every weekday around 9amClick here for more info
|We look forward to hearing from you soon.
Have a golden week!
|The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
|Copyright © 2016 Gold Survival Guide.
All Rights Reserved.