Prices and Charts
USD and NZD Gold Prices at All Time Highs
Gold in New Zealand dollars was up nearly 3% or $145 from a week ago. It closed above $5000 for the first time this week, hitting a high today of $5038. It has now broken above the green uptrend line dating back to early 2023. So buying any dips back down to the blue uptrend line and 50 day MA makes sense. As we are likely at the start of the next leg higher.
While in USD terms gold was also up close to 3%. Rising $81 to $2847. Closing above $2800 for the first time. Buy zones are now $2800 and $2700. But we could see gold run higher before much of a dip.
Silver Surges 5.5%
NZD silver jumped $2.98 (5.5%) from 7 days ago to $56.93 (lower than shown on the chart). It has risen strongly off the 50 day MA and is now breaking above the green downtrend line. Just watching for it to break above the horizontal resistance line at $58. Then the next stop will be the all time high above NZ$60. The 50 day MA remains a very good buying area on any future dips down to there.
USD Silver was also up 5.5% or $1.67 to $32.17 (also lower than the chart shows).It has bounced up off the 200 day MA. Now watching for it to break above $33, with the next target at $35.
NZ Dollar Unchanged After Dipping Earlier This Week
The NZ dollar was down just 3 basis points from 7 days prior to 0.5650. It dipped a few days ago but has regained that dip today. So far looking like it has made a double bottom at 0.5500.
Need Help Understanding the Charts?
Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:
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Integrating Gold into Your KiwiSaver: A DIY Approach
In this week’s feature article, we show how New Zealand investors can incorporate gold into their KiwiSaver portfolios. While there isn’t a dedicated KiwiSaver gold fund, there is a scheme which offers a do-it-yourself approach. This scheme allows members to select individual investments of which we highlight the only 2 gold-related options. We discuss the pros and cons of holding gold related investments in a Kiwisaver fund, helping you understand how to diversify your retirement savings with precious metals.
Discover how you can tailor your KiwiSaver to include gold investments, the potential advantages of this approach, and important factors to keep in mind.
Understanding these factors will help you make informed decisions that align with your financial goals.
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Trump Tariffs: USD Gold Price Hits All Time High as Everything Else Drops
The Trump tariffs have really roiled markets this week. We saw sharemarkets and digital assets drop following the announcements of the 25% tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Those against the latter two have been paused for further negotiations, while China has had a 10% tariff placed on it. Interestingly both gold and silver actually rose following these initial announcements and have continued to do so. With USD gold hitting a new all time high above US$2800. This is perhaps not a surprise, as this severe uncertainty and risk is exactly when precious metals should shine.
China has of course already retaliated. So we might be looking at trade wars similar to the 1930s. Jim Rickards even posted: “We’ll be at war with Mexico soon. And I don’t mean a trade war.”
We’ve seen arguments that tariffs won’t be inflationary. It seems the market doesn’t agree:
“Tariffs are not inflationary”
5-year breakeven rate just surged to its highest level in nearly 2 years.
Source
We’ve been following closely the movement of gold out of London and into the USA. Ostensibly this is meant to be due to the tariffs and the desire to get precious metals into the USA before possible tariffs arrive.
But CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. writes:
What if the shortage of gold in London isn’t a tariff scare but …a shortage of gold? There certainly isn’t a shortage of gold in the retail market. But in the wholesale market it may be a different story.
We’re in the middle of writing an article on this rather large topic so stay tuned next week for more on this.
Gold Price All Time High in Just About Every Currency
But it’s not just in USD and NZD terms that Gold is hitting all time highs. It’s in almost all currencies. Or perhaps more accurately stated, most currencies are achieving all time lows against Gold…
Should we worry when all currencies are falling together!
Today we saw all-time lows in the following currencies:
AUD, CAD, SGD, INR, JPY, CNY, USD, EUR, CHF and GBP.
Source.
Tavi Costa points out:
Gold hit new highs today, once again proving its staying power as the foundation of monetary systems for centuries.
Every few decades, critics resurface, claiming its time is over.
Yet history shows that those are exactly the moments when gold deserves the most attention.
J.P. Morgan said it best:
“Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit.”
Source.
We’d also have to agree with Ronni Stoeferle on the sentiment towards gold currently::
“Gold just hit an all-time high—yet almost no one is talking about it! No media hype, no retail euphoria—just a quiet, steady ascent.
This kind of price action suggests that strong hands are driving the move: central banks, institutional investors, and those positioning for long-term macro shifts.
What’s striking is how different this feels from past breakouts. No “gold rush” sentiment—just quiet strength. Could this be the calm before a much bigger move?”
Source.
Is Gold Overvalued? Not When Adjusted For Money Supply Growth.
According to this chart from Tavi Costa it might actually be about to break out.
“With gold reaching new highs, it’s only natural to ask whether it’s overvalued.
Yet, when adjusted for the U.S. money supply, gold prices remain nearly 80% below their 1980 peak.
With central banks urgently accumulating the metal worldwide, a return to those levels wouldn’t be surprising.
This reinforces the likelihood that we are entering a long-term bullish trend for gold.
Even more importantly:
Gold money supply terms is currently on the verge of a 45-year breakout.”
Source.
The interesting point to note is that the 1980’s peak would now be equal to roughly US$10,000. The below chart care of @ValueSeeker_ is also adjusted for money supply. But instead of being in an index like Tavi’s, it is in adjusted dollar terms:
Gold:
– Adjusted for money supply, the top of 2011 (a disinflationary period) would be equivalent today to $4’200.
– The last peak, which happened during an inflationary period (1980) would now be roughly equivalent to $10’000.
Source.
One other thing we noticed: The 2011 peak that @ValueSeeker_ refers to, was also the same peak reached in the mid 1970’s. So if history rhymes then another big peak looks likely to follow.
Plus US Money Supply Is Growing Again
Here’s another thing to consider about the above predicted numbers for the gold price based upon money supply growth. They will be based upon the money supply as of 31 January – the date of the chart. However, the below chart shows US money supply is actually rising again. So to us it seems likely that the above numbers will end up being much higher.
The US money supply is rising: The M2 money supply jumped 3.9% year-over-year in December to $21.5 trillion, the highest since August 2022. This marks a 9th consecutive increase after 19 months of declines.
Since October 2023, the amount of US Dollars in circulation has risen by $870 billion. The money supply is now just $190 billion below a new all-time high.
All while inflation in the US is surging again.
The purchasing power of the US Dollar is in an eternal bear market.
Source: www.econovic.net, Global Markets Investor
Source
It’s easy to think with gold at record highs and silver looking like breaking out that you’ve missed the boat. However these numbers show gold (and therefore silver) likely has a lot further to run yet to catch up with all the currency that has been created.
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We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions. |
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