To follow is Jeff Clark of Casey Research’s number crunching to predict where the price of gold and silver may go during 2011. But first, also on the same “predictorial” theme , we noticed over at the King World News Blog during the holiday break the following quote from John Embry of Sprott Asset Management on the same topic:
When asked about his themes for 2011 Embry stated, “Basically I think we are going to see more of the same. I mean I don’t see how you could possibly shut off the paper spigot without causing a depression, the likes of which would make the 30’s look like a picnic. If that’s the case then you’ve got to continue to focus on hard assets, and when you get these violent corrections…you’ve got to be in a position to buy them. The things that I would be avoiding like the plague are bonds, particularly long bonds.
…Things are sufficiently dire that I think we are going to have to recast the monetary system before this is over. And in such an undertaking I suspect that gold may be remonetized, and given the amount of paper there is in the world, I mean it will have to be remonetized at a price which would sort of stagger the doomsayers today on gold. There are still more people talking negative on gold today than there are positively believe it or not.”
When asked about price targets for 2011 Embry replied, “I’d be disappointed if it didn’t trade through $2,000 this year, in that event if gold were to make a run at that, silver is a layup for $50.”
By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
After stellar years for both gold and silver, what prices will precious metals hit in 2011? Here’s an analysis based strictly on their price behavior in the current bull market.
First, take a look at the annual percentage gains that gold has registered since 2001 (based on London PM Fix closings):
Excluding 2001, the average gain is 20.4%. Tossing out the additional weak years of ’04 and ’08, the average advance is 24.8%.
So we can make some projections based on what it’s done over the past 10 years. From the 12-31-10 closing price of $1,421.60, if gold matched…
The average rise this decade, the price would hit $1,711.60
The average rise excluding the three weak years = $1,774.15
Last year’s gain = $1,858.03
The largest advance to date (2007) = $1,875.09
But what if global economic circumstances continue to deteriorate? What if worldwide price inflation kicks in? And what if government efforts at currency debasement get more abusive? If Doug Casey is right, a mania in all things gold lies ahead – what if that begins in 2011? Here’s what price levels could be reached based on the following percentage gains.
35% = $1,919.16
40% = $1,990.24
45% = $2,061.32
50% = $2,132.40
1979’s gain of 125.7% = $3,208.55
It thus seems reasonable to expect gold to surpass $1,800 this year, as well as reach a potentially higher level since the factors pushing on the price could become more pronounced.
Here’s a look at silver.
As you can see, silver had its biggest advance in 2010. The average of the decade, again excluding 2001, was 27.5%. And also tossing out the ’08 decline, the average gain is 34.3%. So, from the 12-31-10 closing price of $30.91, if silver matched…
The average rise this decade, the price would hit $39.41
The average gain excluding 2008 = $41.51
Last year’s advance = $56.22
The 1979 gain of 267.5% = $113.59
So, $50 silver seems perfectly attainable this year. And that’s without monetary conditions worsening.
It’s titillating to ponder these advances for gold and silver, especially when you consider we might be getting close to the mania. And if we are, that should do wonderful things to our gold and silver stocks, too.
I would add one caution: the odds are high that there will be a significant correction before gold begins its march to these price levels. In every year but two (’02 and ’06), gold fell below its prior-year close before heading higher. And here’s something to watch for: in every year but one (’08), those lows occurred by May.
In other words, a buying opportunity may be dead ahead. And if you buy on the next correction, your gains on the year could be higher than the annual advance.
Are you satisfied with the amount of bullion you own if monetary and fiscal circumstances deteriorate? Are you prepared to profit from the mania in precious metals that Doug Casey projects is ahead? If not, start the year right with a risk-free trial to BIG GOLD, where we list the safest dealers to buy physical metal and the best stocks to profit from the ongoing bull market. Check it out here.