Contrarian Indicator: Gold Money Managers at Record Levels of Bearishness

Gold Money Managers at Record Levels of Bearishness

This Week:

  • NZers: Do You Hold Cash or Gold in the Coming Crisis?
  • China Joins the SDR Old Boys Club. What’s the Significance?
  • Contrarian Indicator: Gold Money Managers at Record Levels of Bearishness

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Price Chart

Spot Price Today / oz Weekly Change ($) Weekly Change (%)
NZD Gold $1589.98 – $40.75 – 2.49%
USD Gold $1054 – $16.90 – 1.03%
NZD Silver $21.19 – $0.45 – 2.07%
USD Silver $14.05 – $0.16 – 1.12%
NZD/USD 0.6629 + 0.0062 + 0.94%

New lows for gold and silver this week in both NZ dollars (multi-month) and US dollars (multi-year).

As you can see in the chart below gold in NZ dollars has extend its fall even further this week after breaking below the previous uptrend line last week. The question now is will this next line of support hold? Gold is very oversold so due a bounce higher soon.

NZD Gold Chart

NZD silver has also continued to head lower, but is now even more oversold than it was at its lows last year. So it too is overdue a significant bounce higher from here.

NZD Silver Chart

It has been the NZ dollar that has done most of the damage to local precious metals prices as it strengthened quite sharply this week. However of note is that the Kiwi dollar is still well within the confines of the downtrend it has been in for the past 18 months. So it may well struggle to get through the downtrend line in the chart below. Particularly while the expectation remains that US interest rates are about to be lifted.

NZ Dollar Chart

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China Joins the SDR

Big but not surprising news this week was the IMF announcing the Chinese Renminbi would join the basket of currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR).

We have a feature article on the website. It includes:

  • A summary of the changes to the SDR.
  • Thoughts on what this means from the mainstream media.
  • Along with some views from other not so mainstream commentators.
  • Finally we give our take on the significance of this announcement and what might lie ahead.

China Joins the SDR Old Boys Club. What’s the Significance?

China Joins Old Boys Club

We also have another feature article this week on the website.

It considers the opinion of Daily Reckoning Australia writer Vern Gowdie, that Australians are better off holding cash than gold in the lead up to the next financial crisis.

We give our thoughts on what New Zealanders might want to consider before taking this approach. As there are some major differences compared to Australia.

NZ’ers: Do You Hold Cash or Gold in the Coming Crisis?

Contrarian Indicator: Gold Money Managers at Record Levels of Bearishness

Given those two articles have plenty of reading we won’t add too much else this week – especially as we are very late hitting send!

However it is worth pointing out that the “Money Managers” category in gold futures are more bearish in their bets than at any time in 10 years before the last weeks drop to new 6 year lows.

Money Managers in COMEX gold

On top of this reports Adrian Ash, “the net long position…of bullish minus bearish bets…across all “non-commercial” traders (basically anyone outside the miners, refiners and bullion banks) is now near its lowest point since 2002 as a proportion of all outstanding contracts.

It peaked at 42% in autumn 2009. Last Tuesday it equalled less than 4% of all Comex gold futures and options that were live.

In fact, looking at the ratio of bullish to bearish bets, the speculative side of the market in Comex futures and options hasn’t been this close to negative overall on gold since December 2001.”

Comex Gold Futures - Bears vs Bulls

Historically these “money managers” are generally wrong at the extremes. This is certainly an extreme. We think the odds favour a broad bottoming in precious metals is underway. US Dollar prices may still head lower from here, but the fact that the mining indexes haven’t hit new lows is a positive.

If you are yet to take a position now might be as good a time as any with a bounce likely due very soon. The fact we have very little interest from buyers currently is also a positive contrarian indicator.

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This Weeks Articles:

Bond Market Warning

Bond Market Warning + Expect A Gold Price Upturn Very Soon

2015-11-25 21:04:29-05

This Week: Bond Market Warning The Simple Reason To Expect A Gold Price Upturn Very Soon Be Careful Out There Indeed the world is awash with debt London house prices have nothing on Auckland Bank Economists Now Expect NZ Interest Rate Will Drop to 2%  […]

Read More…
Buy Cash

NZers: Do You Hold Cash or Gold in the Coming Crisis?

2015-12-02 18:28:56-05

Over the weekend we received an interesting email from Vern Gowdie in the Daily Reckoning Australia, headed “Do You Hold Cash or Gold in the Coming Crisis?” It gave a good run down of how gold performed in the 1970′s, during and after the 1987 crash and also during the 2008 financial crisis. He explained […]

Read More…
China Joins SDR

China Joins the SDR Old Boys Club. What’s the Significance?

2015-12-02 22:12:26-05

One of the worst kept secrets in global finance was confirmed on Tuesday when the IMF gave notice that it was to add the Chinese Renminbi to the basket of currencies that make up the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR). This will take place in October 2016. “Under the new formula, the respective weights of […]

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

Today’s Spot Prices

Spot Gold

NZ $ 1589.98 / oz US $ 1054 / oz
Spot Silver
NZ $ 21.19 / oz
NZ $ 681.25 / kg
US $ 14.05 / oz
US $ 451.80 / kg

 


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Today’s Prices to Buy
1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar
1oz NZ Gold Ingot
$1644.04
1kg NZ 99.9% pure silver bar
1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
$769.81 (price is per kilo for orders of 1-4 kgs)
$756.36 (price is per kilo only for orders of 5 kgs or more)
1oz PAMP Suisse 99.99% pure gold bar
PAMP Lunar Goat Gold Bar
$1719.85
1kg PAMP 99.9% pure silver bar
PAMP Silver
$799.38
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin
Gold Maple
$1714

1oz Canadian Silver Maple 99.99% pure silver coin (Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)
Silver Maple Silver Box
Tube of 25 $704.50
Box of 500 $13540
(Fully insured and delivered)

Note:

  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
  • Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
  • Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
  • Note: Your funds are deposited into our suppliers bank account only. We receive a finders fee direct from them only.


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Our Mission

  1. To demystify the concept of protecting and increasing ones wealth through owning gold and silver in the current turbulent economic environment.
  2. To simplify the process of purchasing physical gold and silver bullion in NZ – particularly for first time buyers.

We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
GoldSurvivalGuide.co.nz

Ph: 0800 888 465

From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898

email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:

We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.

Copyright © 2015 Gold Survival Guide.

All Rights Reserved.

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