Have Gold Miners Reached the Point of Capitulation?

This Week:

  • Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A Beginners Guide
  • Update on The Yield Curve Recession Predictor – lowest in a decade
  • Could Gold Sentiment Get Any Worse?
  • Have Gold Miners Reached the Point of Capitulation?

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

Looking to sell your gold and silver?Visit this page for more information
Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $1720
Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $666

Has Gold Bottomed Out?

Gold in NZ dollars has edged up this week. It bounced off horizontal support at $1775 and got up close to the 50 day moving average (MA) this week. Before dipping back down again today.

NZ Dollar Gold Chart

Similarly NZD silver also touched the long term uptrend line this week. We’d say NZD silver looks set for a bounce higher from here. We have the NZ dollar perhaps getting close to falling again (see below), and the USD silver price bouncing up off horizontal support. So right now the odds favour a move higher for silver.

The positioning of silver futures traders also points to that outcome. More on that below.

NZ Dollar Silver Chart

Kiwi Dollar Could Turn Lower From Here

The NZ dollar is close to the 50 day MA line. Also touching the overhead downtrend line. The Kiwi may struggle to get through these, as it has done since April.

NZ Dollar Chart

Unsure About Any Terms We Use When Discussing the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below

 

—– OFFER FROM OUR SISTER COMPANY: Emergency Food NZ —– 

 

Do you have all the essentials on hand if you need to leave home in a hurry?

Get Your Own Emergency Survival Kit

Now Available. In Stock. Ready to Ship.

Survival Kit

Grab Your Own Grab ‘n’ Go Bag NOW….

—–

The Yield Curve Recession Predictor: Update

It’s been 5 months since we wrote about the yield curve. A very important indicator to watch in terms of its predictive ability of US recessions.

Long term US treasury yields (the interest these bonds pay) have continued to fall quite sharply. Today the spread between the 2 year and 10 year treasuries is the lowest it has been for more than a decade.

So we’ve updated the chart and numbers that point to how far off the next US recession might be. Spoiler alert: To coin a US phrase, we are late in the final inning.

You’ll also see how the yield curve relates to gold.

The Yield Curve Recession Predictor: Impact on Gold?

The Yield Curve Recession Predictor: Update

Gold Survival Guide Android App
Download on Google Play

Could Gold Sentiment Get Any Worse?

The negative sentiment towards gold is clearly shown by the record net-short positions of speculative investors in Comex gold futures and options.

“In a research note ANZ, a bank, points out that the short position (bets that gold will be cheaper in future) is the highest since data was first collected by the CFTC in 1993.

It’s also the first time since 2001 that investors have entered a net short position (gross shorts exceeding gross longs).

ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say in the past, “such extreme levels of short positions have led to a rally in prices”:

 

“1999, short positions rose fivefold to hit a then record level of 80,000 contracts. Not long after, gold prices rallied 16% from USD250/oz to USD290/oz over the course of two months.

Short positions spiked again in July 2005 and January 2016, with gold prices rallying 12% and 14% respectively over the subsequent three months. In both these cases, the net long position was extremely close to being negative.

This raises the spectre of investors closing out their record level of short positions, and thus starting a short covering rally.”


Source.

Maybe All the Bad News is Priced in?

 

“The environment for gold remains challenging,” said Carsten Menke, a commodity analyst at Swiss private bank Julius Baer. “That said, a lot of bad news is priced in and even in the short term, there should be more upside than downside. We upgraded our view to ‘constructive’ and bought a first position.”

“Speculative traders are net short for the first time since the turn of the century, suggesting that prices are bombed out on current levels,” Menke added. “Hence, it is very unlikely in our view that gold falls back towards the lows reached during the past year’s bear market.”

 

Have Gold Miners Reached the Point of Capitulation?

SentimentTrader’s Jason Goepfert reports that almost every U.S.-traded gold mining stock fell to a 52-week low last Wednesday or Thursday:

Gold Miners at 52 week lows

“That’s the biggest cluster of 52-week lows in the miners in five years. In the past 25 years, similar clusters signaled capitulation selling and excellent medium-term returns.”

Goepfert also commented on the commitment of traders report:

The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

“Smart money” hedgers reduced their net short position in gold, now holding less than 2% of open interest as a net short, only the 2nd time in 15 years (early December 2015 was the other, which was the bottom for gold prices). Their total position in precious metals is now among the most position since 2002.”

Source.

Your Questions Wanted

Remember, if you’ve got a specific question, be sure to send it in to be in the running for a 1oz silver coin.

Win a silver coin

Need Help Understanding the Gold & Silver Futures Commitment of Traders Report?

Does any discussion of futures positions and commitment of traders reports and data have you scratching your heading or just leave you cold?

We delve into this often quoted data and try to make it easy to understand for the layperson. Covering many of the points referred to by the various commentators above.

This includes:

  • What is the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report?
  • The Current Positions in the Commitment of Traders Report for Gold and for Silver
  • What is a “Short Squeeze”?
  • What is “Short Covering”?
  • Is a Gold and Silver Short Squeeze Coming?
  • How the “Smart Money” are Also Positioning Themselves in Other Assets

Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A Beginners Guide

Gold and Silver Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A Beginners Guide

The latest COT data points to a likely bottom in gold last Friday.

Buying now will get you close to the cheapest entry point into gold this year. While for silver the cheapest for over a year. You’ll also be buying right on the trendlines for both metals.

Check out the deals going currently.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

— Prepared for the unexpected? —

Never worry about safe drinking water for you or your family again…

Big Berkey Water FIlter 


The Big Berkey Gravity Water Filter has been tried and tested in the harshest conditions. Time and again proven to be effective in providing safe drinking water all over the globe.

This filter will provide you and your family with over 22,700 litres of safe drinking water. It’s simple, lightweight, easy to use, and very cost effective.

Big Berkey Water Filter

Only Only One Left in Stock – Learn More NOW….

 

—–



This Weeks Articles:

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing


7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide

Today’s Prices to Buy
1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar
1oz NZ Gold Ingot
$1857
1kg NZ 99.9% pure silver bar 
1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
$768 (price is per kilo for orders of 1-24 kgs)
$761 (price is per kilo only for orders of 25 kgs or more)
Order Now Button
1oz PAMP Suisse 99.99% pure gold bar
PAMP Lunar Goat Gold Bar
$1888
1kg PAMP 99.9% pure silver bar
PAMP Silver
$827
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin
Gold Maple
$1923    (or $1920 for 10 or more Backdated Year Coins)
1oz Canadian Silver Maple 99.99% pure silver coin
(Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)

Silver Monster Box
Tube of 25 $686
Box of 500 $13,410 (2018’s)
$13,356 (backdated other years)

(Fully insured and delivered)
Order Now Button

Note:

  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
  • Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
  • Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
  • Plus we accept Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Visa and Mastercard
  • Note: For local gold and silver orders your funds are deposited into our suppliers bank account. We receive a finders fee direct from them. Pricing is as good or sometimes even better than if you went direct.

Order Now Button

Can’t Get Enough of Gold Survival Guide?
If once a week isn’t enough sign up to get daily price alerts every weekday around 9am Click here for more info

We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
GoldSurvivalGuide.co.nz
Ph: 0800 888 465
From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898
email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz

Follow us on Twitter Find us on Facebook G+

The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
Copyright © 2018 Gold Survival Guide.
All Rights Reserved.

Get Free Gold & Silver Tips and Deals!

  • Get weekly news and tips on buying, storing, and selling gold and silver.
  • Be the first to know about limited quantity gold and silver deals.
  • Get our free 19 Nuggets on Buying Gold and Silver guide right away to help you become a bullion expert.
Email Address *
First Name
*Required Fields
Note: It is our responsibility to protect your privacy and we guarantee that your data will be completely confidential.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Want to Track Gold & Silver Prices Every Day?

Get a daily price alert every weekday.

 

Along with free charts and analysis of what the price may do.

Email Address *
First Name
*Required Fields

You have Successfully Subscribed!