The Dollar and the Oil Market May be About to Change Forever

The Quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board discussions are always a good read. Ronni Stoeferle and his team at Wealth Management firm Incrementum AG provide plenty of insight into gold and the global economy and monetary system.

The most recent notes are just out and here’s what each member of the board discussed:

Luke Gromen:

► The dollar is losing its monopoly on the pricing of oil
► China is effectively “re-opening” the Bretton Woods gold window through the yuan
► This has already begun driving physical gold market flows from west to east, and we expect
that to continue given gold’s historic undervaluation v. the US dollar
► Certain US state pension funds running into trouble despite an “everything bubble” are a sign of broader and worsening US fiscal problems, which could have important implications for the US economic and political situation as soon as 2H17E.
► I believe the dollar will weaken, and the yuan will strengthen
► The market-wide Schadenfreude towards gold holders, is now shifting

Heinz Blasnik:

► The US narrow adjusted money supply growth is at pre-2007/08 crash levels
► The market situation today is similar to what we usually see in the final stages of a bubble
► Any market crisis will be short lived because the Fed will step in immediately
► When equities and bonds start going down together, many of the systematic trading strategies are going to be in trouble
► The geo-political situation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia is heating up. Saudi Arabia would be capable of conquering Qatar and would probably like to do it. Historically, “ownership” of Qatar has frequently changed hands and territorial conquest has a long tradition in the region.
► I believe the technical picture for gold looks good, and that the recent downturn is a buying opportunity

Ronald Stöferle:

► Markets are becoming more fragile
► The Fed will have to reverse as soon as recession fears come up and that’s the point when gold really starts to take off
► We have been spot on with in our 11th In Gold we Trust report, as we expected short-term weakness in the gold price. This will be an excellent buying opportunity

Mark Valek:

► I am closely watching the yuan versus the dollar and how the FX reserves are developing
► The dollar usually strengthens during risk-off periods, but I expect this knee-jerk reaction of a stronger dollar during market sell-offs to change

Check out the full report at this link.

And also refer to the excellent 2017 In Gold We Trust Report here. As Ronni noted they have been quite accurate so far in their predictions from earlier in the year.

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