Interview with Ronni Stoerferle: Gold Break Out and Recession Approaching?
Ronni Stoeferle of Incrementum AG is interviewed on commodity TV. He discusses how gold has likely broken out and the odds of a recession approaching.
Here’s what is covered in this short but content filled interview:
Is this the breakout?
Technical indicators look positive that gold has broken out above $1300 and is headed higher.
3 different kinds of people when it comes to gold:
The believers – think everything is okay and will continue to be.
The skeptics – largest and most important group. They have doubts about the current system. Will only buy if there is some confirmation like the price heading to $1400 – $1500.
The critics – Understand the monetary system is flawed and really care about counter party risk. Once you’re a critic, you will never go back to the “everything will be fine” camp.
The everything bubble
Ronni discusses how stocks, real estate and bonds are at or close to all time highs.
Commodities versus stocks
Commodities are ridiculously cheap at the moment.
Seems that stocks are rolling over at the moment, while commodities made their lows in 2016.
Commodities bear market
Last bear market has been brutal in terms of depth of fall and the length of it.
Nobody thinks inflation may be around the corner. Therefore likely that it is.
Is a recession approaching?
16 out of 19 recessions we saw rising rates before the recession.
Seems we are at the start of a rates rising cycle and therefore a recession coming.
Recession are a positive for gold because central bankers won’t just let a recession happen. There will be money printing and fiscal stimulus.
Where will the black swan come from?
Consensus of 89 economists in Bloomberg no one is seeing a recession for next 3 years.
Everyone is on one side of the boat. So they will likely have to move back to the centre at least.
Current monetary system is the exception to the rule
Gold backing of the US Dollar is only slightly higher than the gold lows in 1999. So it is pretty low by historical standards.
He believes it is a mathematical certainty that we will see a monetary reform. And history shows gold has played a major role in those transitions.
For a 100% backing of the US monetary base, gold price would have to be at US$14,000.
From a monetary perspective gold is very cheap at the moment.
Read more on: How Will the Global Monetary System Change Take Place?>>
Here is the full video interview:
For more from Ronni, check out a summary of the excellent presentation he gave in Auckland a few years ago: Summary: Ronald Stoeferle’s Auckland, NZ, Presentation. Saturday 14/9/2013>>