We Should Not Expect Inflationary Pressures To Ease Soon

We should not expect inflationary pressures to ease soon

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

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NZD Gold With a Sharp Bounce Off the Uptrend Line

Gold in New Zealand dollars was up a hefty $93 or over 3% from a week ago. It has broken out of the sideways consolidation it has been in for the past month. So does that mean the correction is over? It looks promising, however a further pullback still wouldn’t surprise us. We could yet see gold fall down to the $2700 horizontal support level. Or even down to the 200 day moving average at $2650. NZ Dollar Gold Chart

NZD Silver Bouncing Even Harder

Silver was up even more. Rising almost 5.5% from last Wednesday after bouncing off the downtrend line to retest the breakout. Like gold, silver is looking strong. But if it was to dip lower then watch for the 200 day MA at $34.20 or even the uptrend line around $34. NZ Dollar Silver Chart

Weaker NZ Dollar Gives Local Metals Prices a Boost

The Kiwi dollar was down over 1% this past week. It was one of those weeks where metals prices were up and so was the US dollar. So local gold and silver prices have been very strong as a result. Late Update: The RBNZ just announced a 50 basis point increase to the Official Cash Rate. In response the NZ dollar did spike sharply up to 0.69 but then immediately fell back down to be pretty much where it was this morning. NZ Dollar Chart We continue to think that the NZD/USD exchange rate probably won’t have a great bearing on metals prices. Rather that we’ll just see the large sideways trading range of the past 18 months continue. Just like it did from 2016-2020. Or in other words, all government mandated currencies are going down against gold and silver. They just take it in turn at how fast each one falls. This table from the always excellent Incrementum In Gold We Trust Report clearly shows this. While the NZD isn’t displayed we know from previous comparisons we have done that it comes in about the same as the AUD and the CAD. Two other resource currencies like the NZ dollar. (We’d highly recommend you sign up for the excellent newsletter from Incrementum.) Gold-Performance-in-Major-Currencies-2000-2022-YTD

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below

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The Yield Curve Recession Predictor 2022: Impact on Gold?

We talked about the odds of a global recession coming back in our newsletter on 17 March. There has been discussion of a possible recession in New Zealand later this year as the effects of covid shutdowns take hold. However in our 17 March report we were looking more at a global recession led by the USA. With history showing that the recent surge in energy prices is a good indicator of a recession coming. But recently another very accurate recession predictor was also tripped. We last wrote about this back in 2019 and it proved to be very accurate then. So will the yield curve inversion prove to be a soothsayer again this time around? Here’s what’s covered…
  • What is the Yield Curve?
  • What is an Inverted Yield Curve?
  • What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Mean?
  • How Does the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?
  • When Did the Yield Curve Last Invert?
  • What is the Yield Curve Saying Today?
  • Recession Indicator: How Far Away Might the Next Recession Be?
  • But Things Are Different This Time, Aren’t They?
  • What to Do to Prepare?
  • The Yield Curve and Gold and Silver Investing

The Yield Curve Recession Predictor 2022: Impact on Gold?

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The Bank for Central Banks Warns: “We Should Not Expect Inflationary Pressures to Ease Soon”

As noted already, the RBNZ today announced a double whammy interest rate increase of 50 basis points or half a percent. They are finally trying to make up for the massive juice they gave the economy during covid. All the central bankers seem to be back tracking on their predictions from last year that inflation was just “transitory”. We hate to say I told you so… but last year we were warning about high inflation being likely. See here and here. It seems that central bankers the world over are finally realising that they need to do something to try and get inflation under control. Various economist reports we’ve read seem to think we’re looking at a year or two and then we’ll get back to normal. We haven’t read too many mainstream reports considering that we could be in for a long term period of heightened inflation. Perhaps one lasting a decade? But then surprisingly we just saw this speech given earlier this month by Agustín Carstens, the General Manager of the BIS (Bank for International Settlements). The BIS is often referred to as the bank for central banks. So when we saw a speech by its head entitled “The return of inflation” we had to check it out. Here’s the summary:
“We should not expect inflationary pressures to ease soon as many of the forces behind high inflation remain in place and new ones are emerging. There are already signs of increased price spillovers across sectors and between prices and wages, as is common in a high-inflation environment. Moreover, the structural factors keeping inflation low in recent decades may wane as globalisation retreats. The inflationary paradigm may be changing. Central banks need to adjust to this new environment, not least by raising policy rates to more appropriate levels. The world economy must learn to rely less on expansionary monetary policies.”
Source. So a perhaps surprising conclusion, to see the bank for central banks in agreement with us. Although about a year later we suppose. However we did choke on our lunch when we read this part:
“The key to higher sustainable growth cannot be expansionary monetary or fiscal policy. We must strengthen the productive capacity of the economy. Indeed, this is well overdue. Many of the economic challenges we face today stem from the neglect of supply side policies over the past decade or more. Over the medium term, higher potential growth would make it easier for indebted economies to withstand the higher nominal and real interest rates that are likely to prevail in the years ahead. Central banks have done more than their part over the past decade. Now is the time for other policies to take the baton.”
We wondered what he meant when he said: “Central banks have done more than their part over the past decade. Now is the time for other policies to take the baton.” Did he mean central banks have certainly done their part in injecting huge sums of new currency into the global economy. Did he mean they have done their part in causing the current shambles we find ourselves in? Probably not. Alas, when he said “Now is the time for other policies to take the baton”, he also probably didn’t mean we need to do away with central banks and having grey haired old men (and women) deciding on the price of money! Hopefully that is where we are heading. But we probably have to see things get worse before we see the end of central banks and rather the decentralisation of everything. Until then make sure you have enough insurance for the ongoing destruction of currency. So that your wealth can weather whatever storms are to come and make it out the other side. If you’d like a quote please get in touch…
  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

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This Weeks Articles:

The Yield Curve Recession Predictor 2022: Impact on Gold?

Fri, 8 Apr 2022 5:40 PM NZST
The best predictor of a recession we have seen is the yield curve. While the yield curve may sound like something only economists would know about and discuss, it’s actually a surprisingly simple measure. In this post we’ll cover: What is the Yield Curve? The yield curve is simply a plot of the interest rates […] The post The Yield Curve Recession Predictor 2022: Impact on Gold? appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

Has Russia Just Put a Floor Under Gold? Russian Central Bank Sets Fixed Price of 5,000 Roubles per Gram

Wed, 6 Apr 2022 8:48 AM NZST
Last week Russia’s central bank announced a major change. It will now purchase gold from local banks at a fixed price. What are the implications on the gold price of this move? Kitco reported: …the Russian central bank will pay a fixed price of 5,000 roubles ($52) per gram between March 28 and June 30, […] The post Has Russia Just Put a Floor Under Gold? Russian Central Bank Sets Fixed Price of 5,000 Roubles per Gram appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

NZD Gold Continues to Consolidate Above Uptrend Line

Wed, 6 Apr 2022 6:35 AM NZST
Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2668 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1086 NZD Gold Continues to Consolidate Above Uptrend Line Gold in New Zealand dollars was up around $11 from a week ago. It continues […] The post NZD Gold Continues to Consolidate Above Uptrend Line appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…

What You Need to Know about Silver Bars

Thu, 31 Mar 2022 2:52 PM NZST
what-you-need-to-know-silver-bar-imgA lot of people new to investing in precious metals immediately leap to gold. However, the market and opportunities in the silver industry are equally as deep and interesting for people at any stage of their financial journey. They’re worth exploring to have a full understanding of the options they have. Why People Invest in […] The post What You Need to Know about Silver Bars appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.
Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.
  1. Email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide Today’s Prices to Buy
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1kg Pure Silver bar 1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar Local silver bar $1,325.60
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1kg “Scottsdale Gold” Bar 99.99% with unique serial number $95,467.68
1oz ABC Bullion Gold Cast Bar 1oz ABC gold bar $3,029.80  (Not on website -email to order)
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin (2020) Gold Maple $3,096.60  (in stock)
1 oz RCM Silver Maple Coin (Minimum order size tube of 25 coins) Silver Monster Box Tube of 25: $N/A (pick up) (Tubes of 1oz silver Britannia’s and Krugerrands are available for $1167.00, but not here until after 18 April) Box of 500:

$24,720.53 (Pre-order) Including shipping/insurance 3-5 weeks delivery

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  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
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We look forward to hearing from you soon. Have a golden week! David (and Glenn) GoldSurvivalGuide.co.nz Ph: 0800 888 465 From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898 email: orders@goldsurvivalguide.co.nz
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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer: We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
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