Inflation/Stagflation, or Deflation and Gold to Plunge?

Inflation/Stagflation, or Deflation and Gold to Plunge?

Prices and Charts

Change from last weeks gold and silver prices

Looking to sell your gold and silver?

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Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2794
Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1110

NZD Gold Flat From Last Week

Gold in New Zealand Dollars was up just $8 from a week ago. Consolidating around $2900 after the sharp pullback. It could yet dip to the 50 day moving average (MA) or back to the blue uptrend line. If those 2 levels didn’t hold, then the next buying zone to watch for would be the horizontal support line at $2700, Then below that the 200 day MA at $2667.

The pullback has been more significant in US dollars. With USD gold down $46 or 2.35%. It is sitting just above horizontal support at $1900.

NZ Dollar Gold Chart

Whereas NZD Silver Down 3.6%

Meanwhile poor man’s gold was actually down a hefty $1.35 or 3.6% over the past 7 days when measured in New Zealand Dollars.

The stronger USD meant the drop was even greater for USD silver. Down a whopping 6% from a week ago.

But in either currency, silver is now close to or at the downtrend line. So we could be near to a bounce back for silver already.

NZ Dollar Silver Chart

New Zealand Dollar Drops Over 2.5%

The New Zealand dollar was sharply weaker this week. Down 178 basis points, the Kiwi has fallen well below the 50 day MA. It is now touching on the lower margin of the downtrend channel it has been in since the start of 2021. With the RSI now touching on oversold we should expect a bounce soon. That could put pressure on local gold and silver prices.

NZ Dollar Chart

Need Help Understanding the Charts?

Check out this post if any of the terms we use when discussing the gold, silver and NZ Dollar charts are unknown to you:

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: The Ultimate Beginners Guide

Continues below


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What Type of Gold Bar Should I Buy? The 2022 Ultimate Guide

The charts above show that gold has been clearly back in an uptrend since about March of 2021. With record high inflation rates meaning record high destruction in purchasing power, it’s no wonder more people are turning to gold as a hedge.

Gold bars are the most popular way to purchase gold. So if you’re trying to decide what type to buy today’s feature article will see you right. Here’s what’s covered:

  • Why Buy Gold Bars?
  • What Size Gold Bar Should I Buy?
  • Pros and Cons of Different Bar Sizes
  • 1kg Gold Bar Advantage: 1kg Bars Can be Borrowed Against
  • What is the Most Common Gold Bar Size That is Bought?
  • Other Factors to Consider When Buying Gold Ingots and Bars
  • Different Brands of Gold Bars
  • Pros and Cons of Cast and Minted Bars

What Type of Gold Bar Should I Buy? The 2022 Ultimate Guide

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Australia About to Board the High-Inflation Bandwagon?

So far Australia has been one of the few countries to avoid the record high inflation rates. This morning ASB commented that could be about to end:

“Aussie Q1 CPI figures, due at 1:30pm NZT. Market expectations are for an acceleration in annual inflation to 4.6% y/y from 3.5% last quarter. Our friends at CBA are below-market at 4.3%. Markets (and CBA) are currently primed for a June start to the RBA interest rate hiking cycle, but this could be brought forward to May if CPI prints above expectations (particularly core inflation). This sort of scenario would spell trouble in particular for NZD/AUD, which may fall back towards the key 0.9100 support level. “

Sure enough inflation did surprise to the upside. With the actual quarterly increase coming in at 2.1%, against a forecast 1.7%. Which over the twelve months to the March 2022 quarter, resulted in a rise in the CPI of 5.1%.

Inflation It’s Everybody Else’s Fault!

The bank economists have been wrong about inflation for the past couple of years. They continue to be so.

Before last week’s New Zealand CPI numbers ASB stated:

“Today’s first quarter inflation outturn will be a whopper – we expect a 2.2% quarterly increase in the CPI to lift annual CPI inflation to 7.3% (market: 7.1%). This will most likely mark the peak this cycle. The spike in headline inflation is now well understood and priced, but what will be more interesting is what core inflation measures say about the likely persistence of high inflation. These are already all sitting uncomfortably above the RBNZ’s 1-3% inflation target and are set to rise further in Q1.”

The actual rate came in a bit lower but as this article points out the peak is likely not here yet:

Inflation is yet to peak despite hitting a 30-year high on Thursday, one leading economist says, as the Prime Minister continues to point at overseas factors as the main contributors to rising cost of living. StatsNZ revealed on Thursday annual inflation in the year to March 2021 had risen 6.9 percent, the largest year-on-year increase since 1990 and up from the 5.9 percent recorded last quarter.
Read more

The prime Minister blames oversea factors for high inflation. Funnily enough every country seems to be blaming “overseas factors”! But if inflation is high everywhere then who is to blame?

Nothing to do with massive currency printing amid lockdowns! No, of course not.

Inflation/Stagflation, or Deflation and Gold to Plunge?

Last week we ended with the no win exit that central banks face from their years of expansion of the currency supply.

“After years of vast increases in money creation, when it seemed like no ill effects would appear, central banks are now caught. There is no easy exit for them.”

Inflation is looking out of control and so central banks (ours included) are trying to reign this in with interest rate increases. But they are well behind the eight ball currently. But they also realise if they clamp down too hard shares would plunge far more steeply than the so-far “manageable” declines. Likewise for real estate prices.

So central banks are trying to find the goldilocks “just right” interest rate level. Something they are likely to fail at. The market should set the price of money, not some grey haired old men and women.

So the question is what happens from here?

Do central banks continue to err on the low side and cause inflation to rise even further?

Or do they pump rates much higher and cause a crash in shares and potentially property too?

Some analysts like Henrik Zeberg believe there is a massive stock market fall to come, along with a deflationary bust:

Zeberg has also argued that gold will plunge in a deflationary collapse. We’re not convinced a deflationary collapse will occur. However we have looked at this scenario multiple times before.

For example, Harry Dent has also long argued that gold will first plunge:

See this article from 2015 for why we’d disagree with Dent and Zeberg’s assertion about gold falling: Dear Harry Dent: Wanna Bet About Gold?

More on Harry Dent, along with arguments for and against the various “flations”, are also covered here: Inflation Versus Deflation and What Comes Next?

But that said, we have no crystal ball. Gold surely won’t rise in a straight line. A deflation could cause a fall in gold too. However we would think this could be temporary as argued in the two articles above.

So in the long run we believe holding metals should be positive, no matter which route central banks take us down. We’d rather hold gold and silver now and hang on through any pullbacks, than take the gamble that there will be a big fall in the price of gold. But instead miss out on buying when a big fall never never eventuates.

If you agree then get in touch for a quote…

  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Shop Online with indicative pricing

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This Weeks Articles:

What Type of Gold Bar Should I Buy? The 2022 Ultimate Guide

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 9:03 AM NZST

What type of Gold Bar to BuyHere’s everything you need to know about what type of gold bar to buy in 2022. You’ll learn when to choose gold bars over gold coins, what size gold bar to buy and a whole lot more… Here’s How to Choose What Type of Gold Bar to Buy So you’ve considered the many reasons why […]

The post What Type of Gold Bar Should I Buy? The 2022 Ultimate Guide appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

Why the NZ Super Fund Should “Invest” in Gold in 2022

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 10:36 AM NZST

WHY THE NZ SUPER FUND SHOULD INVEST IN GOLDSee how another financial crisis could cause the NZ Super Fund to lose over 50% in value. And why we believe the fund guardians should have an exposure to physical gold as insurance against crisis events. The New Zealand Super Fund was set up to help the Government save now. In order to help pay for […]

The post Why the NZ Super Fund Should “Invest” in Gold in 2022 appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

The Current Danger of the 60/40 Investing Approach

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 6:40 AM NZST

Prices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2786 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1160 Gold in NZ Dollars – Expected Pull Back is Underway Gold in New Zealand dollars is up $23 from 7 days ago. However, […]

The post The Current Danger of the 60/40 Investing Approach appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…

We Should Not Expect Inflationary Pressures To Ease Soon

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 6:12 AM NZST

We should not expect inflationary pressures to ease soonPrices and Charts Looking to sell your gold and silver? Visit this page for more information Buying Back 1oz NZ Gold 9999 Purity $2762 Buying Back 1kg NZ Silver 999 Purity $1151 NZD Gold With a Sharp Bounce Off the Uptrend Line Gold in New Zealand dollars was up a hefty $93 or over 3% […]

The post We Should Not Expect Inflationary Pressures To Ease Soon appeared first on Gold Survival Guide.

Read More…
As always we are happy to answer any questions you have about buying gold or silver. In fact, we encourage them, as it often gives us something to write about. So if you have any get in touch.

  1. Email:
  2. Phone: 0800 888 GOLD ( 0800 888 465 ) (or +64 9 2813898)
  3. or Online order form with indicative pricing

7 Reasons to Buy Gold & Silver via GoldSurvivalGuide

Today’s Prices to Buy
1oz NZ 99.99% pure gold bar
1oz NZ Gold Ingot
1kg Pure Silver bar
1 Kilo NZ Silver Bar
Local silver bar $1,274.70
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1kg “Scottsdale Gold” Bar 99.99% with unique serial number

1oz ABC Bullion Gold Cast Bar
1oz ABC gold bar
$3,039.70  (Not on website -email to order)
1oz Canadian Gold Maple 99.99% pure gold coin (2020)
Gold Maple
$3,106.70  (in stock)
1 oz RCM Silver Maple Coin
(Minimum order size tube of 25 coins)

Silver Monster Box
Tube of 25: $N/A (pick up) (Tubes of 1oz silver Britannia’s and Krugerrands are available for $$1,127.25, but not due for around 4 weeks)
Box of 500:

$24,204.27 (Pre-order)
Including shipping/insurance 3-5 weeks delivery

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  • Prices are excluding delivery
  • 1 Troy ounce = 31.1 grams
  • 1 Kg = 32.15 Troy ounces
  • Request special pricing for larger orders such as monster box of Canadian maple silver coins
  • Lower pricing for local gold orders of 10 to 29ozs and best pricing for 30 ozs or more.
  • Foreign currency options available so you can purchase from USD, AUD, EURO, GBP
  • Plus we accept BTC, BCH, Visa and Mastercard

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We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Have a golden week!

David (and Glenn)
Ph: 0800 888 465
From outside NZ: +64 9 281 3898

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The Legal stuff – Disclaimer:
We are not financial advisors, accountants or lawyers. Any information we provide is not intended as investment or financial advice. It is merely information based upon our own experiences. The information we discuss is of a general nature and should merely be used as a place to start your own research and you definitely should conduct your own due diligence. You should seek professional investment or financial advice before making any decisions.
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